Events

Path miss is the mean great-circle distance in statute miles at 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours. Wind miss is the mean absolute difference in knots. A forecast counts only when the best track has a fix at that exact valid time. A model’s miss is averaged only on the forecasts that also have an official forecast from that same issue, which is what vs official compares. This rank uses storms from 2026. Earlier seasons are on the hurricane archive.

Overall rank is the average of the path rank and the wind rank. Those ranks are computed for each storm, then averaged across the storms where that source was ranked, and each storm counts the same. Each rank uses the graded leads at 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours, and each lead counts once. A lower miss is the better rank. A tie shares the average of the places. A source needs at least 3 graded forecasts for path and 3 for wind on a storm before that storm counts toward the rank. Fewer than that says Not enough forecasts yet. A source missing path or wind on a storm is left out of both ranks for that storm, and a source that is missing one on every storm shows —.

Vs official is track skill: 1 minus this source’s path miss divided by the official forecast’s path miss on those same forecasts. Zero is a tie. The small names under the headers are the technical ones: lead, cases, track error, track skill, and intensity error.

The methodology page is the full reference.