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Days 1–5. Compared with the National Weather Service forecast from the same hour. No one pays for a rank.

Hurricane tracks

Tropical Storm Karina Model Accuracy: DeepMind vs GFS vs WeatherNext 3

Final advisory

NHC issued its final advisory at 8:00 PM ET Sun, Sep 6.

Tropical Storm Karina has 53 positions on the best track, which is where the storm actually went, from the operational NHC file. 4 official forecast tracks are drawn. At 48 hours, the average track miss is 22 miles across 34 forecasts. At 48 hours, the official wind forecast averaged 100 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 102 mph. Stored model tracks on these forecast tracks: GFS, GEFS mean, Canadian GEM, UKMET, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, HMON, NAVGEM, Google DeepMind, WeatherNext 3.

EP112026 · 2026 · Aug 25–Sep 7, 2026. Score table. Damage reports.

How to read this. The solid line is where the storm went. A dashed line is where the official forecast said it would go. A smaller path miss is closer. Distances are statute miles. Wind speeds are miles per hour.

The technical details

Path miss on this page is the great-circle distance in statute miles, the same miles as the home card and the score table. The Earth radius is 3,958.7613 miles. The file also keeps that distance in nautical miles. One nautical mile is 1,852 meters, about 1.15 statute miles. A case counts when that forecast and the best track (BEST, lead 0) share the same valid time. Positions are not interpolated. A model track counts even when that cycle has no official forecast yet. Skill against the official forecast (OFCL) still requires the official forecast from the same issue time and lead.

Shown leads are 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 hours, once a paired fix exists. Sample size is the number of paired cases at that lead. Overall rank still uses 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours. The 96-hour lead is drawn when the deck has a paired fix, and it is not in that rank.

Wind on this page is miles per hour. The file stores maximum wind in knots. One knot is about 1.15 miles per hour. An advisory wind is rounded to the nearest 5 mph. A mean on this page is rounded to the nearest mile per hour. Wind miss is the absolute difference on the paired cases. There is no confidence interval on this map. The daily board’s interval is a 95% percentile bootstrap.

Overall rank is the average of the path rank and the wind rank on this storm. Each rank uses the graded leads at 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours, and each of those leads counts once, however many forecasts it holds. A lower miss is the better rank. A tie shares the average of the places those forecasts occupy. A source is ranked only with at least 3 graded forecasts for path and 3 for wind. Fewer than that says Not enough forecasts yet. A source with no graded path, or no graded wind, is left out of both ranks, and overall shows —.

The best track is the operational NHC b-deck. It is preliminary and revised after the season. HURDAT2 is not loaded. Model lines come from the public a-deck for the same forecast tracks, and only when that file stores them. Google DeepMind is the Weather Lab operational ensemble mean. WeatherNext 3 is that model’s ensemble mean from the same download. ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, and the ECMWF ENS mean are tropical-cyclone tracks from ECMWF open data. The ECMWF ENS mean is the average of the member centers in the IFS ensemble track file. AI GFS is NOAA’s AIGFS tracker when that file is still posted. The methodology page names the aids that are scored.

The methodology page is the full reference. How we grade says the same rules in plain English.

The best track is the operational NHC b-deck. It is preliminary and is revised after the season. The post-season HURDAT2 track is not loaded.

ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, ECMWF ENS mean, AI GFS: No graded forecasts yet.

Overall rank

Overall averages each forecast's rank on path and on wind strength. See the separate scores below.

Place on this list. 1 was closest to the weather that happened. A tie shares this number, and the next place skips ahead. Early read until the longer day count, then proven. The forecast source this row scores. Path and wind ranksOverall averages each forecast's rank on path and on wind strength. See the separate scores below. Track rankPlace on path miss. 1 was closest. On one storm this is that place. Across storms it is the average of those places. Each graded lead counts once. A tie shares the average place. Intensity rankPlace on wind miss. 1 was closest. On one storm this is that place. Across storms it is the average of those places. Each graded lead counts once. A tie shares the average place.
1 Google DeepMind 1.5 2 1
1 WeatherNext 3 1.5 1 2
3 NHC official 3 3 3
4 GFS 5 4 6
5 HAFS-B 6.5 8 5
6 GEFS mean 7 5 9
6 HAFS-A 7 10 4
8 HWRF 8 9 7
9 Canadian GEM 9 6 12
9 UKMET 9 7 11
11 HMON 9.5 11 8
12 NAVGEM 11 12 10

How we grade

Track and intensity by model

Each row is one source at one lead that has already verified, including 12, 24, 36, and 48 hours. The count is how many forecasts shared a time with where the storm went. Path miss is statute miles. Wind miss is miles per hour. The rank number is that source's place in the table above, and it still uses 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours.

Place on this list. 1 was closest to the weather that happened. A tie shares this number, and the next place skips ahead. Early read until the longer day count, then proven. The forecast source this row scores. LeadHow many hours ahead this forecast was made. Scored leads are 24, 48, 72, and 120. The technical name is lead. CasesHow many past forecasts went into this average. A forecast counts only when the best track has a fix at that exact time. The technical name is cases. Track errorAverage how far the predicted storm path was from where it actually went, in miles. Lower is better. The technical name is track error. Track skillHow that path miss compares with the official hurricane forecast. Positive means better than the official forecast. Negative means worse. The technical name is track skill. Intensity errorAverage how far off the predicted wind speed was, in miles per hour. The file stores knots. Lower is better. The technical name is intensity error. Intensity skillHow that wind miss compares with the official hurricane forecast. Positive means better. Negative means worse. The technical name is intensity skill.
1 Google DeepMind 12 h 40 12 mi Beats the official forecast by 38% 11 mph Behind the official forecast by 73%
1 Google DeepMind 24 h 38 16 mi Beats the official forecast by 28% 11 mph Beats the official forecast by 4%
1 Google DeepMind 36 h 36 19 mi Beats the official forecast by 22% 11 mph Beats the official forecast by 18%
1 Google DeepMind 48 h 34 22 mi Beats the official forecast by 1% 11 mph Beats the official forecast by 18%
1 Google DeepMind 60 h 32 28 mi Beats the official forecast by 15% 12 mph Beats the official forecast by 12%
1 Google DeepMind 72 h 30 32 mi Beats the official forecast by 26% 11 mph Beats the official forecast by 13%
1 Google DeepMind 96 h 26 40 mi Beats the official forecast by 48% 12 mph Beats the official forecast by 34%
1 Google DeepMind 120 h 22 66 mi Beats the official forecast by 56% 15 mph Beats the official forecast by 45%
1 WeatherNext 3 12 h 40 12 mi Beats the official forecast by 40% 12 mph Behind the official forecast by 96%
1 WeatherNext 3 24 h 38 16 mi Beats the official forecast by 30% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 21%
1 WeatherNext 3 36 h 36 21 mi Beats the official forecast by 14% 13 mph Beats the official forecast by 3%
1 WeatherNext 3 48 h 34 23 mi Behind the official forecast by 2% 15 mph Behind the official forecast by 6%
1 WeatherNext 3 60 h 32 26 mi Beats the official forecast by 22% 17 mph Behind the official forecast by 27%
1 WeatherNext 3 72 h 30 35 mi Beats the official forecast by 19% 17 mph Behind the official forecast by 30%
1 WeatherNext 3 96 h 26 43 mi Beats the official forecast by 45% 17 mph Beats the official forecast by 6%
1 WeatherNext 3 120 h 22 51 mi Beats the official forecast by 66% 18 mph Beats the official forecast by 31%
3 NHC official 12 h 40 20 mi — 6 mph —
3 NHC official 24 h 38 23 mi — 11 mph —
3 NHC official 36 h 36 24 mi — 14 mph —
3 NHC official 48 h 34 22 mi — 14 mph —
3 NHC official 60 h 32 33 mi — 13 mph —
3 NHC official 72 h 30 43 mi — 13 mph —
3 NHC official 96 h 26 78 mi — 18 mph —
3 NHC official 120 h 22 150 mi — 26 mph —
4 GFS 12 h 47 28 mi Beats the official forecast by 17% 21 mph Behind the official forecast by 280%
4 GFS 24 h 45 30 mi Behind the official forecast by 10% 24 mph Behind the official forecast by 145%
4 GFS 36 h 43 39 mi Behind the official forecast by 36% 26 mph Behind the official forecast by 109%
4 GFS 48 h 41 47 mi Behind the official forecast by 98% 26 mph Behind the official forecast by 122%
4 GFS 60 h 39 63 mi Behind the official forecast by 72% 28 mph Behind the official forecast by 145%
4 GFS 72 h 37 83 mi Behind the official forecast by 80% 28 mph Behind the official forecast by 159%
4 GFS 96 h 33 135 mi Behind the official forecast by 61% 33 mph Behind the official forecast by 79%
4 GFS 120 h 29 204 mi Behind the official forecast by 29% 38 mph Behind the official forecast by 21%
5 HAFS-B 12 h 47 31 mi Behind the official forecast by 18% 14 mph Behind the official forecast by 111%
5 HAFS-B 24 h 45 38 mi Behind the official forecast by 45% 16 mph Behind the official forecast by 58%
5 HAFS-B 36 h 43 40 mi Behind the official forecast by 73% 21 mph Behind the official forecast by 73%
5 HAFS-B 48 h 41 49 mi Behind the official forecast by 126% 22 mph Behind the official forecast by 80%
5 HAFS-B 60 h 39 60 mi Behind the official forecast by 86% 26 mph Behind the official forecast by 114%
5 HAFS-B 72 h 37 80 mi Behind the official forecast by 98% 30 mph Behind the official forecast by 152%
5 HAFS-B 96 h 33 146 mi Behind the official forecast by 95% 33 mph Behind the official forecast by 94%
5 HAFS-B 120 h 29 232 mi Behind the official forecast by 57% 37 mph Behind the official forecast by 27%
6 HAFS-A 12 h 47 30 mi Behind the official forecast by 16% 15 mph Behind the official forecast by 156%
6 HAFS-A 24 h 45 34 mi Behind the official forecast by 44% 18 mph Behind the official forecast by 67%
6 HAFS-A 36 h 43 45 mi Behind the official forecast by 85% 20 mph Behind the official forecast by 59%
6 HAFS-A 48 h 41 53 mi Behind the official forecast by 157% 21 mph Behind the official forecast by 74%
6 HAFS-A 60 h 39 63 mi Behind the official forecast by 113% 24 mph Behind the official forecast by 110%
6 HAFS-A 72 h 37 86 mi Behind the official forecast by 118% 28 mph Behind the official forecast by 124%
6 HAFS-A 96 h 33 149 mi Behind the official forecast by 111% 27 mph Behind the official forecast by 59%
6 HAFS-A 120 h 29 236 mi Behind the official forecast by 67% 33 mph Behind the official forecast by 21%
6 GEFS mean 12 h 47 25 mi Beats the official forecast by 13% 28 mph Behind the official forecast by 412%
6 GEFS mean 24 h 45 32 mi Behind the official forecast by 20% 31 mph Behind the official forecast by 218%
6 GEFS mean 36 h 43 41 mi Behind the official forecast by 44% 33 mph Behind the official forecast by 173%
6 GEFS mean 48 h 41 52 mi Behind the official forecast by 116% 34 mph Behind the official forecast by 187%
6 GEFS mean 60 h 39 65 mi Behind the official forecast by 88% 36 mph Behind the official forecast by 222%
6 GEFS mean 72 h 37 84 mi Behind the official forecast by 89% 37 mph Behind the official forecast by 243%
6 GEFS mean 96 h 33 137 mi Behind the official forecast by 67% 42 mph Behind the official forecast by 135%
6 GEFS mean 120 h 29 223 mi Behind the official forecast by 46% 48 mph Behind the official forecast by 54%
8 HWRF 12 h 45 26 mi Behind the official forecast by 8% 22 mph Behind the official forecast by 271%
8 HWRF 24 h 43 36 mi Behind the official forecast by 50% 24 mph Behind the official forecast by 130%
8 HWRF 36 h 41 47 mi Behind the official forecast by 83% 26 mph Behind the official forecast by 108%
8 HWRF 48 h 39 56 mi Behind the official forecast by 159% 27 mph Behind the official forecast by 115%
8 HWRF 60 h 37 67 mi Behind the official forecast by 116% 29 mph Behind the official forecast by 137%
8 HWRF 72 h 35 87 mi Behind the official forecast by 116% 31 mph Behind the official forecast by 149%
8 HWRF 96 h 31 141 mi Behind the official forecast by 92% 34 mph Behind the official forecast by 93%
8 HWRF 120 h 27 216 mi Behind the official forecast by 50% 39 mph Behind the official forecast by 40%
9 UKMET 12 h 23 38 mi Behind the official forecast by 30% 34 mph Behind the official forecast by 526%
9 UKMET 24 h 22 41 mi Behind the official forecast by 35% 37 mph Behind the official forecast by 258%
9 UKMET 36 h 21 52 mi Behind the official forecast by 114% 39 mph Behind the official forecast by 218%
9 UKMET 48 h 20 75 mi Behind the official forecast by 162% 43 mph Behind the official forecast by 226%
9 UKMET 60 h 19 89 mi Behind the official forecast by 154% 46 mph Behind the official forecast by 275%
9 UKMET 72 h 18 112 mi Behind the official forecast by 141% 49 mph Behind the official forecast by 287%
9 UKMET 96 h 16 159 mi Behind the official forecast by 84% 53 mph Behind the official forecast by 172%
9 UKMET 120 h 14 204 mi Behind the official forecast by 33% 54 mph Behind the official forecast by 74%
9 Canadian GEM 12 h 24 35 mi Behind the official forecast by 21% 42 mph Behind the official forecast by 694%
9 Canadian GEM 24 h 23 38 mi Behind the official forecast by 43% 43 mph Behind the official forecast by 337%
9 Canadian GEM 36 h 22 45 mi Behind the official forecast by 87% 44 mph Behind the official forecast by 285%
9 Canadian GEM 48 h 21 59 mi Behind the official forecast by 142% 45 mph Behind the official forecast by 272%
9 Canadian GEM 60 h 20 76 mi Behind the official forecast by 145% 46 mph Behind the official forecast by 303%
9 Canadian GEM 72 h 19 93 mi Behind the official forecast by 115% 48 mph Behind the official forecast by 316%
9 Canadian GEM 96 h 17 137 mi Behind the official forecast by 67% 52 mph Behind the official forecast by 197%
9 Canadian GEM 120 h 15 201 mi Behind the official forecast by 32% 61 mph Behind the official forecast by 102%
11 HMON 12 h 45 27 mi Behind the official forecast by 22% 14 mph Behind the official forecast by 124%
11 HMON 24 h 43 37 mi Behind the official forecast by 49% 21 mph Behind the official forecast by 104%
11 HMON 36 h 41 45 mi Behind the official forecast by 66% 27 mph Behind the official forecast by 119%
11 HMON 48 h 39 50 mi Behind the official forecast by 114% 31 mph Behind the official forecast by 148%
11 HMON 60 h 37 62 mi Behind the official forecast by 91% 34 mph Behind the official forecast by 185%
11 HMON 72 h 35 89 mi Behind the official forecast by 113% 37 mph Behind the official forecast by 208%
11 HMON 96 h 31 155 mi Behind the official forecast by 104% 40 mph Behind the official forecast by 129%
11 HMON 120 h 27 257 mi Behind the official forecast by 74% 45 mph Behind the official forecast by 53%
12 NAVGEM 12 h 46 55 mi Behind the official forecast by 121% 44 mph Behind the official forecast by 718%
12 NAVGEM 24 h 44 60 mi Behind the official forecast by 153% 44 mph Behind the official forecast by 382%
12 NAVGEM 36 h 42 75 mi Behind the official forecast by 200% 43 mph Behind the official forecast by 270%
12 NAVGEM 48 h 40 85 mi Behind the official forecast by 305% 41 mph Behind the official forecast by 249%
12 NAVGEM 60 h 38 111 mi Behind the official forecast by 252% 39 mph Behind the official forecast by 243%
12 NAVGEM 72 h 36 140 mi Behind the official forecast by 237% 36 mph Behind the official forecast by 228%
12 NAVGEM 96 h 32 205 mi Behind the official forecast by 180% 37 mph Behind the official forecast by 115%
12 NAVGEM 120 h 28 325 mi Behind the official forecast by 136% 44 mph Behind the official forecast by 42%

How we grade

ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, ECMWF ENS mean, AI GFS: No graded forecasts yet.

Track map

The solid line is the best track. Dashed lines are official forecast tracks from a few advisories, from the issue position out through the leads stored in that advisory. Thinner lines are model tracks from NHC’s public a-deck for those same advisories, and only when that file actually contains them. Google DeepMind and WeatherNext 3 are ensemble-mean tracks from Weather Lab, drawn on those same advisories. ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, and the ECMWF ENS mean are open-data cyclone tracks, drawn the same way. AI GFS is NOAA’s AIGFS tracker, drawn when that file is still posted.

5°N 18°N 32°N 46°N 158°E 166°W 129°W 93°W
Map of Tropical Storm Karina. The best track, where the storm actually went, has 53 positions. 4 official forecast tracks are drawn. Model lines: GFS, GEFS mean, Canadian GEM, UKMET, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, HMON, NAVGEM, Google DeepMind, WeatherNext 3. Latitude and longitude, scaled by the cosine of the mid-latitude so a degree of longitude is not stretched.
  • Actual track (53 positions)
  • NHC official Aug 27, 18:00 UTC
  • NHC official Aug 31, 00:00 UTC
  • NHC official Sep 3, 06:00 UTC
  • NHC official Sep 6, 12:00 UTC
  • GFS
  • GEFS mean
  • Canadian GEM
  • UKMET
  • HAFS-A
  • HAFS-B
  • HWRF
  • HMON
  • NAVGEM
  • Google DeepMind
  • WeatherNext 3

The chart measures how far the track was off in statute miles, the same miles as the home card. It includes 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 hours when a paired fix exists. The overall rank uses 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours. Positions are not interpolated.

How far the track was off

20 mi 12 h 23 mi 24 h 24 mi 36 h 22 mi 48 h 33 mi 60 h 43 mi 72 h 78 mi 96 h 150 mi 120 h
Average official track miss in miles by how far ahead. 12 hours 20 miles over 40 forecasts. 24 hours 23 miles over 38 forecasts. 36 hours 24 miles over 36 forecasts. 48 hours 22 miles over 34 forecasts. 60 hours 33 miles over 32 forecasts. 72 hours 43 miles over 30 forecasts. 96 hours 78 miles over 26 forecasts. 120 hours 150 miles over 22 forecasts.
LeadHow many hours ahead this forecast was made. This map shows 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 when a paired fix exists. Overall rank uses 24, 48, 72, and 120. The technical name is lead. CasesHow many past forecasts went into this average. A forecast counts only when the best track has a fix at that exact time. The technical name is cases. Track errorAverage how far the predicted storm path was from where it actually went, in statute miles. Lower is better. The technical name is track error. Intensity errorAverage how far off the predicted wind speed was, in miles per hour, on this page. Lower is better. The file stores knots. The technical name is intensity error. Forecast max windAverage top wind in the official forecast, in miles per hour, on the paired cases. The file stores knots. The technical name is forecast maximum wind. Best-track windAverage top wind where the storm actually went, in miles per hour, at the same times. The file stores knots. The technical name is best-track wind.
12 h 40 20 mi 6 mph 98 mph 96 mph
24 h 38 23 mi 11 mph 99 mph 98 mph
36 h 36 24 mi 14 mph 101 mph 100 mph
48 h 34 22 mi 14 mph 100 mph 102 mph
60 h 32 33 mi 13 mph 100 mph 104 mph
72 h 30 43 mi 13 mph 97 mph 106 mph
96 h 26 78 mi 18 mph 91 mph 103 mph
120 h 22 150 mi 26 mph 79 mph 97 mph

Miles are statute miles. Wind is miles per hour. The National Hurricane Center file stores wind in knots. One knot is about 1.15 miles per hour. Nautical miles are in the technical details.

How we grade

Top wind

12 h 24 h 36 h 48 h 60 h 72 h 96 h 120 h
Top wind, official forecast versus where the storm went. At 12 hours the forecast averaged 98 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 96 mph. At 24 hours the forecast averaged 99 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 98 mph. At 36 hours the forecast averaged 101 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 100 mph. At 48 hours the forecast averaged 100 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 102 mph. At 60 hours the forecast averaged 100 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 104 mph. At 72 hours the forecast averaged 97 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 106 mph. At 96 hours the forecast averaged 91 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 103 mph. At 120 hours the forecast averaged 79 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 97 mph.
  • Official forecast maximum wind
  • Best-track maximum wind

Source: National Hurricane Center / NOAA. The operational b-deck and the public a-deck are U.S. government works in the public domain. Google DeepMind and WeatherNext 3 ensemble means are experimental forecasts from Google DeepMind Weather Lab. Forecasts older than 48 hours are used under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, and ECMWF ENS tracks are ECMWF open data, used under CC BY 4.0. AI GFS tracks are a NOAA AIGFS product. Forecast Scoreboard is not affiliated with NHC, NOAA, Google, or ECMWF.