Raw models
GFS, ECMWF IFS, ECMWF AIFS, Canadian GEM, ICON, NAM, and HRRR are scored against the National Weather Service. A rank appears after 90 days scored.
A numerical model is a forecast source. It is ranked on the daily high, low, and precipitation at the same airports, against the same climate day, and against the National Weather Service forecast from the same issue. Television stations are not on this board.
Hurricane model accuracy 2026: DeepMind vs ECMWF vs GFS
Deterministic precipitation is stored as 0% or 100%. That conversion is labeled, and temperature skill does not depend on it.
World leaderboard: ECMWF IFS, ECMWF AIFS, GFS, and Canadian GEM (MSC GDPS, from the MSC Datamart) at 50 major cities, checked against routine METARs at each city's main airport. That rank is an average miss, not a skill score against the National Weather Service.
Includes archived forecasts back to March 31, 2026.
| The weather model. Models are scored on their own against the National Weather Service. | OperatorThe organization that runs this model. The technical name is operator. | Whether this model is being collected. Not publicly available means it is listed and left empty, and no number is guessed. | The license the public files are used under. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian GEM (GDPS) | ECCC / MSC | Collecting | Open Government Licence — Canada |
| ECMWF AIFS | ECMWF | Collecting | CC BY 4.0 and ECMWF terms of use |
| ECMWF IFS | ECMWF | Collecting | CC BY 4.0 and ECMWF terms of use |
| GEML | ECCC / MSC | Public, not collected yet | Open Government Licence — Canada |
| GFS | NOAA / NCEP | Collecting | U.S. government work, public domain |
| Google WeatherNext / GraphCast output | Not publicly available | No anonymous operational feed | |
| HRRR | NOAA / NCEP | Collecting | U.S. government work, public domain |
| ICON | Deutscher Wetterdienst | Collecting | DWD GeoNutzV (attribution) |
| NAM | NOAA / NCEP | Collecting | U.S. government work, public domain |
| UKMET | UK Met Office | Not publicly available | Not an anonymous public grid |
How a grid becomes a daily forecast
Credits
Contains ECMWF data. Copyright © 2026 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). ECMWF IFS and ECMWF AIFS open data are used under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence (CC BY 4.0). Forecast Scoreboard changes that data by keeping the nearest grid point and reducing it to a local-standard-time daily high, low, and precipitation total.
Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada. Canadian GEM is the Global Deterministic Prediction System from Environment and Climate Change Canada.
Source: Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD).
GFS, NAM, and HRRR are U.S. government works in the public domain. They come from NOAA.
Forecast Scoreboard is not affiliated with ECMWF, Environment and Climate Change Canada, the Deutscher Wetterdienst, or NOAA, and those organisations do not endorse this site.