Hurricane model accuracy 2026: DeepMind vs ECMWF vs GFS
Hurricane model accuracy for the stored 2026 storms on file. Track and intensity are ranked by lead for DeepMind, ECMWF, and GFS, with the case count.
Season-wide track and intensity for the 2026 tropical cyclones on file. Google DeepMind, WeatherNext 3, ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, the ECMWF ENS mean, GFS, AI GFS, UKMET, Canadian GEM, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, HMON, and the NHC official forecast. The page uses the storms stored now, so a new graded storm updates the ranks.
Path miss is statute miles. Wind miss is knots. A forecast counts when the best track has a fix at the same time, and a model counts only when the NHC official forecast from that same issue and lead is on file. Leads are 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours. How we grade explains the rest.
Storms in this season
A storm the National Hurricane Center is still advising on is listed first. The rest are newest first.
- Vance · Oct 18, 2026 – ongoing
- Olana · Oct 24, 2026 – Oct 27, 2026
- Josephine · Oct 18, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026
- Trudy · Oct 11, 2026 – Oct 20, 2026
- Simon · Oct 4, 2026 – Oct 16, 2026
- Isaias · Oct 4, 2026 – Oct 11, 2026
- Nineteen · Sep 27, 2026 – Oct 2, 2026
- Hanna · Sep 26, 2026 – Sep 30, 2026
- Rachel · Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 11, 2026
- Gonzalo · Sep 22, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026
- Polo · Sep 17, 2026 – Sep 30, 2026
- Fay · Sep 17, 2026 – Sep 29, 2026
- Odalys · Sep 16, 2026 – Sep 27, 2026
- Nolo · Sep 10, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026
- Norbert · Sep 7, 2026 – Sep 15, 2026
- Marie · Aug 29, 2026 – Sep 8, 2026
- Edouard · Aug 28, 2026 – Sep 3, 2026
- Lowell · Aug 25, 2026 – Sep 11, 2026
- Karina · Aug 25, 2026 – Sep 7, 2026
- Dolly · Aug 24, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026
- Iselle · Aug 21, 2026 – Aug 27, 2026
- Julio · Aug 20, 2026 – Aug 25, 2026
- Moke · Aug 18, 2026 – Aug 25, 2026
- Lala · Aug 10, 2026 – Aug 28, 2026
- Hernan · Aug 10, 2026 – Aug 15, 2026
- Cristobal · Aug 10, 2026 – Aug 13, 2026
- Genevieve · Jul 24, 2026 – Aug 6, 2026
- Bertha · Jul 17, 2026 – Jul 24, 2026
- Fausto · Jul 16, 2026 – Jul 29, 2026
- Elida · Jul 12, 2026 – Jul 20, 2026
- Douglas · Jun 28, 2026 – Jul 3, 2026
- Arthur · Jun 15, 2026 – Jun 18, 2026
- Cristina · Jun 6, 2026 – Jun 11, 2026
- Boris · Jun 5, 2026 – Jun 9, 2026
- Amanda · May 31, 2026 – Jun 8, 2026
Overall rank
Overall rank averages the path rank and the wind rank. Each storm counts the same. A source needs at least 3 graded forecasts for path and 3 for wind.
| Place on this list. 1 was closest to the weather that happened. A tie shares this number, and the next place skips ahead. Early read until the longer day count, then proven. | The forecast source this row scores. | Path and wind ranksOverall averages each forecast's rank on path and on wind strength. See the separate scores below. | Track rankPlace on path miss. 1 was closest. On one storm this is that place. Across storms it is the average of those places. Each graded lead counts once. A tie shares the average place. | Intensity rankPlace on wind miss. 1 was closest. On one storm this is that place. Across storms it is the average of those places. Each graded lead counts once. A tie shares the average place. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ECMWF ENS mean | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2 | WeatherNext 3 | 2.55 | 1.82 | 3.29 |
| 3 | Google DeepMind | 3.09 | 2.83 | 3.34 |
| 4 | AI GFS | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 5 | NHC official | 4.02 | 4.12 | 3.92 |
| 6 | ECMWF HRES | 5 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| 7 | HWRF | 5.35 | 5.9 | 4.81 |
| 8 | HMON | 5.48 | 5.81 | 5.15 |
| 9 | HAFS-B | 6.17 | 6.91 | 5.44 |
| 10 | HAFS-A | 6.2 | 7.12 | 5.28 |
| 11 | GFS | 6.41 | 6.66 | 6.16 |
| 12 | ECMWF AIFS | 6.5 | 3.33 | 9.67 |
| 13 | Canadian GEM | 7.59 | 6.41 | 8.78 |
| 14 | UKMET | 7.68 | 7 | 8.36 |
Track and intensity by lead
| The forecast source this row scores. | LeadHow many hours ahead this forecast was made. Scored leads are 24, 48, 72, and 120. The technical name is lead. | CasesHow many past forecasts went into this average. A forecast counts only when the best track has a fix at that exact time. The technical name is cases. | Track errorAverage how far the predicted storm path was from where it actually went, in miles. Lower is better. The technical name is track error. | Intensity errorAverage how far off the predicted wind speed was, in knots. Lower is better. The technical name is intensity error. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google DeepMind | 24 h | 691 | 23 mi | 8 kt |
| Google DeepMind | 48 h | 564 | 36 mi | 10 kt |
| Google DeepMind | 72 h | 460 | 56 mi | 13 kt |
| Google DeepMind | 120 h | 282 | 116 mi | 14 kt |
| WeatherNext 3 | 24 h | 694 | 20 mi | 9 kt |
| WeatherNext 3 | 48 h | 574 | 32 mi | 11 kt |
| WeatherNext 3 | 72 h | 470 | 49 mi | 13 kt |
| WeatherNext 3 | 120 h | 288 | 94 mi | 15 kt |
| ECMWF AIFS | 24 h | 52 | 31 mi | 34 kt |
| ECMWF AIFS | 48 h | 42 | 50 mi | 33 kt |
| ECMWF AIFS | 72 h | 29 | 56 mi | 29 kt |
| ECMWF AIFS | 120 h | 11 | 172 mi | 14 kt |
| ECMWF HRES | 24 h | 26 | 41 mi | 14 kt |
| ECMWF HRES | 48 h | 22 | 47 mi | 16 kt |
| ECMWF HRES | 72 h | 19 | 74 mi | 12 kt |
| ECMWF HRES | 120 h | 13 | 185 mi | 12 kt |
| ECMWF ENS mean | 24 h | 13 | 49 mi | 7 kt |
| ECMWF ENS mean | 48 h | 8 | 42 mi | 6 kt |
| ECMWF ENS mean | 72 h | 4 | 49 mi | 12 kt |
| GFS | 24 h | 723 | 40 mi | 15 kt |
| GFS | 48 h | 597 | 61 mi | 17 kt |
| GFS | 72 h | 486 | 90 mi | 17 kt |
| GFS | 120 h | 293 | 188 mi | 20 kt |
| AI GFS | 24 h | 9 | 51 mi | 5 kt |
| AI GFS | 48 h | 1 | 24 mi | 11 kt |
| UKMET | 24 h | 358 | 41 mi | 24 kt |
| UKMET | 48 h | 294 | 69 mi | 27 kt |
| UKMET | 72 h | 240 | 103 mi | 28 kt |
| UKMET | 120 h | 141 | 198 mi | 29 kt |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 360 | 43 mi | 27 kt |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 299 | 71 mi | 30 kt |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 246 | 110 mi | 31 kt |
| Canadian GEM | 120 h | 145 | 229 mi | 34 kt |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 664 | 44 mi | 12 kt |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 543 | 68 mi | 14 kt |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 438 | 105 mi | 15 kt |
| HAFS-A | 120 h | 251 | 201 mi | 21 kt |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 663 | 43 mi | 12 kt |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 541 | 67 mi | 14 kt |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 437 | 104 mi | 18 kt |
| HAFS-B | 120 h | 253 | 208 mi | 21 kt |
| HWRF | 24 h | 611 | 42 mi | 13 kt |
| HWRF | 48 h | 508 | 63 mi | 15 kt |
| HWRF | 72 h | 418 | 95 mi | 16 kt |
| HWRF | 120 h | 249 | 189 mi | 19 kt |
| HMON | 24 h | 611 | 41 mi | 13 kt |
| HMON | 48 h | 504 | 67 mi | 16 kt |
| HMON | 72 h | 415 | 105 mi | 18 kt |
| HMON | 120 h | 244 | 199 mi | 22 kt |
| NHC official | 24 h | 725 | 30 mi | 7 kt |
| NHC official | 48 h | 599 | 46 mi | 11 kt |
| NHC official | 72 h | 493 | 67 mi | 12 kt |
| NHC official | 120 h | 298 | 141 mi | 15 kt |