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Scoreboard

Days 1–5. Compared with the National Weather Service forecast from the same hour. No one pays for a rank.

Hurricane tracks

Tropical Disturbance Nineteen-E Model Accuracy: DeepMind vs GFS vs WeatherNext 3

Final advisory

NHC issued its final advisory at 2:00 PM ET Thu, Oct 1.

Tropical Disturbance Nineteen-E has 22 positions on the best track, which is where the storm actually went, from the operational NHC file. 4 official forecast tracks are drawn. At 48 hours, the average track miss is 107 miles across 6 forecasts. At 48 hours, the official wind forecast averaged 28 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 29 mph. Stored model tracks on these forecast tracks: GFS, GEFS mean, Canadian GEM, UKMET, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, NAVGEM, Google DeepMind, WeatherNext 3.

EP192026 · 2026 · Sep 27–Oct 2, 2026. Score table. Damage reports.

How to read this. The solid line is where the storm went. A dashed line is where the official forecast said it would go. A smaller path miss is closer. Distances are statute miles. Wind speeds are miles per hour.

The technical details

Path miss on this page is the great-circle distance in statute miles, the same miles as the home card and the score table. The Earth radius is 3,958.7613 miles. The file also keeps that distance in nautical miles. One nautical mile is 1,852 meters, about 1.15 statute miles. A case counts when that forecast and the best track (BEST, lead 0) share the same valid time. Positions are not interpolated. A model track counts even when that cycle has no official forecast yet. Skill against the official forecast (OFCL) still requires the official forecast from the same issue time and lead.

Shown leads are 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 hours, once a paired fix exists. Sample size is the number of paired cases at that lead. Overall rank still uses 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours. The 96-hour lead is drawn when the deck has a paired fix, and it is not in that rank.

Wind on this page is miles per hour. The file stores maximum wind in knots. One knot is about 1.15 miles per hour. An advisory wind is rounded to the nearest 5 mph. A mean on this page is rounded to the nearest mile per hour. Wind miss is the absolute difference on the paired cases. There is no confidence interval on this map. The daily board’s interval is a 95% percentile bootstrap.

Overall rank is the average of the path rank and the wind rank on this storm. Each rank uses the graded leads at 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours, and each of those leads counts once, however many forecasts it holds. A lower miss is the better rank. A tie shares the average of the places those forecasts occupy. A source is ranked only with at least 3 graded forecasts for path and 3 for wind. Fewer than that says Not enough forecasts yet. A source with no graded path, or no graded wind, is left out of both ranks, and overall shows —.

The best track is the operational NHC b-deck. It is preliminary and revised after the season. HURDAT2 is not loaded. Model lines come from the public a-deck for the same forecast tracks, and only when that file stores them. Google DeepMind is the Weather Lab operational ensemble mean. WeatherNext 3 is that model’s ensemble mean from the same download. ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, and the ECMWF ENS mean are tropical-cyclone tracks from ECMWF open data. The ECMWF ENS mean is the average of the member centers in the IFS ensemble track file. AI GFS is NOAA’s AIGFS tracker when that file is still posted. The methodology page names the aids that are scored.

The methodology page is the full reference. How we grade says the same rules in plain English.

The best track is the operational NHC b-deck. It is preliminary and is revised after the season. The post-season HURDAT2 track is not loaded.

ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, ECMWF ENS mean, AI GFS: No graded forecasts yet.

Overall rank

Overall averages each forecast's rank on path and on wind strength. See the separate scores below.

Place on this list. 1 was closest to the weather that happened. A tie shares this number, and the next place skips ahead. Early read until the longer day count, then proven. The forecast source this row scores. Path and wind ranksOverall averages each forecast's rank on path and on wind strength. See the separate scores below. Track rankPlace on path miss. 1 was closest. On one storm this is that place. Across storms it is the average of those places. Each graded lead counts once. A tie shares the average place. Intensity rankPlace on wind miss. 1 was closest. On one storm this is that place. Across storms it is the average of those places. Each graded lead counts once. A tie shares the average place.
1 WeatherNext 3 1 1 1
2 HWRF 2.5 3 2
3 HMON 3.5 2 5
4 HAFS-B 5 4 6
5 GEFS mean 5.5 7 4
6 NAVGEM 6 5 7
6 NHC official 6 9 3
8 GFS 7 6 8
9 Canadian GEM 8.5 8 9
10 HAFS-A 10 10 10
11 UKMET 11 11 11
— Google DeepMind Not enough forecasts yet — —

How we grade

Track and intensity by model

Each row is one source at one lead that has already verified, including 12, 24, 36, and 48 hours. The count is how many forecasts shared a time with where the storm went. Path miss is statute miles. Wind miss is miles per hour. The rank number is that source's place in the table above, and it still uses 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours.

Place on this list. 1 was closest to the weather that happened. A tie shares this number, and the next place skips ahead. Early read until the longer day count, then proven. The forecast source this row scores. LeadHow many hours ahead this forecast was made. Scored leads are 24, 48, 72, and 120. The technical name is lead. CasesHow many past forecasts went into this average. A forecast counts only when the best track has a fix at that exact time. The technical name is cases. Track errorAverage how far the predicted storm path was from where it actually went, in miles. Lower is better. The technical name is track error. Track skillHow that path miss compares with the official hurricane forecast. Positive means better than the official forecast. Negative means worse. The technical name is track skill. Intensity errorAverage how far off the predicted wind speed was, in miles per hour. The file stores knots. Lower is better. The technical name is intensity error. Intensity skillHow that wind miss compares with the official hurricane forecast. Positive means better. Negative means worse. The technical name is intensity skill.
1 WeatherNext 3 12 h 6 23 mi Beats the official forecast by 14% 2 mph Beats the official forecast by 60%
1 WeatherNext 3 24 h 4 23 mi Beats the official forecast by 53% 3 mph Beats the official forecast by 10%
1 WeatherNext 3 36 h 3 26 mi Beats the official forecast by 59% 4 mph —
2 HWRF 12 h 4 31 mi Behind the official forecast by 35% 5 mph —
2 HWRF 24 h 3 37 mi Behind the official forecast by 35% 3 mph —
2 HWRF 36 h 1 91 mi Behind the official forecast by 164% 5 mph —
3 HMON 12 h 4 20 mi Beats the official forecast by 15% 1 mph —
3 HMON 24 h 3 30 mi Behind the official forecast by 11% 4 mph —
3 HMON 36 h 1 47 mi Behind the official forecast by 37% 3 mph —
4 HAFS-B 12 h 9 29 mi Behind the official forecast by 7% 3 mph Behind the official forecast by 10%
4 HAFS-B 24 h 8 28 mi Beats the official forecast by 30% 3 mph Behind the official forecast by 47%
4 HAFS-B 36 h 6 35 mi Beats the official forecast by 42% 3 mph —
4 HAFS-B 48 h 4 51 mi Beats the official forecast by 47% 5 mph —
4 HAFS-B 60 h 2 22 mi Beats the official forecast by 78% 6 mph Behind the official forecast by 100%
5 GEFS mean 12 h 16 33 mi Behind the official forecast by 9% 2 mph Beats the official forecast by 44%
5 GEFS mean 24 h 14 36 mi Beats the official forecast by 28% 3 mph Beats the official forecast by 5%
5 GEFS mean 36 h 12 44 mi Beats the official forecast by 51% 4 mph Behind the official forecast by 400%
5 GEFS mean 48 h 10 72 mi Beats the official forecast by 50% 4 mph Behind the official forecast by 380%
5 GEFS mean 60 h 8 97 mi Beats the official forecast by 31% 4 mph Ties the official forecast
5 GEFS mean 72 h 6 137 mi Beats the official forecast by 21% 4 mph Beats the official forecast by 20%
5 GEFS mean 96 h 2 297 mi — 5 mph —
6 NHC official 12 h 11 34 mi — 3 mph —
6 NHC official 24 h 10 49 mi — 2 mph —
6 NHC official 36 h 8 75 mi — 1 mph —
6 NHC official 48 h 6 107 mi — 1 mph —
6 NHC official 60 h 4 128 mi — 4 mph —
6 NHC official 72 h 2 211 mi — 6 mph —
6 NAVGEM 12 h 11 52 mi Behind the official forecast by 28% 4 mph Behind the official forecast by 65%
6 NAVGEM 24 h 9 61 mi Beats the official forecast by 4% 3 mph Behind the official forecast by 67%
6 NAVGEM 36 h 7 81 mi Beats the official forecast by 18% 6 mph —
6 NAVGEM 48 h 4 128 mi Beats the official forecast by 31% 4 mph —
6 NAVGEM 60 h 3 161 mi Beats the official forecast by 48% 2 mph Ties the official forecast
6 NAVGEM 72 h 1 392 mi — 0 mph —
6 NAVGEM 96 h 1 454 mi — 5 mph —
8 GFS 12 h 16 35 mi Behind the official forecast by 17% 4 mph Behind the official forecast by 20%
8 GFS 24 h 14 36 mi Beats the official forecast by 25% 5 mph Behind the official forecast by 80%
8 GFS 36 h 12 41 mi Beats the official forecast by 53% 5 mph Behind the official forecast by 500%
8 GFS 48 h 10 70 mi Beats the official forecast by 61% 4 mph Behind the official forecast by 460%
8 GFS 60 h 8 91 mi Beats the official forecast by 36% 4 mph Behind the official forecast by 13%
8 GFS 72 h 6 109 mi Beats the official forecast by 35% 3 mph Beats the official forecast by 40%
8 GFS 96 h 2 278 mi — 7 mph —
9 Canadian GEM 12 h 8 43 mi Beats the official forecast by 6% 4 mph Beats the official forecast by 35%
9 Canadian GEM 24 h 7 64 mi Beats the official forecast by 15% 3 mph Beats the official forecast by 7%
9 Canadian GEM 36 h 6 102 mi Beats the official forecast by 9% 4 mph Behind the official forecast by 180%
9 Canadian GEM 48 h 5 148 mi Behind the official forecast by 2% 4 mph —
9 Canadian GEM 60 h 4 185 mi Behind the official forecast by 18% 5 mph Beats the official forecast by 10%
9 Canadian GEM 72 h 3 170 mi Beats the official forecast by 59% 6 mph Behind the official forecast by 20%
9 Canadian GEM 96 h 1 333 mi — 2 mph —
10 HAFS-A 12 h 12 38 mi Behind the official forecast by 11% 7 mph Behind the official forecast by 144%
10 HAFS-A 24 h 11 57 mi Behind the official forecast by 10% 5 mph Behind the official forecast by 85%
10 HAFS-A 36 h 9 81 mi Behind the official forecast by 4% 4 mph Behind the official forecast by 360%
10 HAFS-A 48 h 7 96 mi Beats the official forecast by 15% 5 mph Behind the official forecast by 380%
10 HAFS-A 60 h 5 145 mi Behind the official forecast by 9% 3 mph Ties the official forecast
10 HAFS-A 72 h 3 283 mi Behind the official forecast by 38% 6 mph Behind the official forecast by 10%
10 HAFS-A 96 h 1 490 mi — 6 mph —
11 UKMET 12 h 7 25 mi Beats the official forecast by 34% 5 mph Behind the official forecast by 90%
11 UKMET 24 h 6 44 mi Beats the official forecast by 49% 5 mph Behind the official forecast by 100%
11 UKMET 36 h 5 79 mi Beats the official forecast by 19% 5 mph Behind the official forecast by 180%
11 UKMET 48 h 4 124 mi Behind the official forecast by 3% 5 mph —
11 UKMET 60 h 3 177 mi Behind the official forecast by 33% 5 mph Beats the official forecast by 20%
11 UKMET 72 h 3 270 mi Behind the official forecast by 51% 7 mph Behind the official forecast by 40%
11 UKMET 96 h 1 464 mi — 6 mph —
— Google DeepMind 12 h 5 15 mi Beats the official forecast by 50% 1 mph Beats the official forecast by 70%
— Google DeepMind 24 h 2 30 mi Beats the official forecast by 54% 5 mph —

How we grade

ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, ECMWF ENS mean, AI GFS: No graded forecasts yet.

Track map

The solid line is the best track. Dashed lines are official forecast tracks from a few advisories, from the issue position out through the leads stored in that advisory. Thinner lines are model tracks from NHC’s public a-deck for those same advisories, and only when that file actually contains them. Google DeepMind and WeatherNext 3 are ensemble-mean tracks from Weather Lab, drawn on those same advisories. ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, and the ECMWF ENS mean are open-data cyclone tracks, drawn the same way. AI GFS is NOAA’s AIGFS tracker, drawn when that file is still posted.

10°N 14°N 19°N 24°N 144°W 130°W 117°W 104°W
Map of Tropical Disturbance Nineteen-E. The best track, where the storm actually went, has 22 positions. 4 official forecast tracks are drawn. Model lines: GFS, GEFS mean, Canadian GEM, UKMET, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, NAVGEM, Google DeepMind, WeatherNext 3. Latitude and longitude, scaled by the cosine of the mid-latitude so a degree of longitude is not stretched.
  • Actual track (22 positions)
  • NHC official Sep 28, 12:00 UTC
  • NHC official Sep 29, 12:00 UTC
  • NHC official Sep 29, 18:00 UTC
  • NHC official Sep 30, 06:00 UTC
  • GFS
  • GEFS mean
  • Canadian GEM
  • UKMET
  • HAFS-A
  • HAFS-B
  • NAVGEM
  • Google DeepMind
  • WeatherNext 3

The chart measures how far the track was off in statute miles, the same miles as the home card. It includes 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 hours when a paired fix exists. The overall rank uses 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours. Positions are not interpolated.

How far the track was off

34 mi 12 h 49 mi 24 h 75 mi 36 h 107 mi 48 h 128 mi 60 h 211 mi 72 h
Average official track miss in miles by how far ahead. 12 hours 34 miles over 11 forecasts. 24 hours 49 miles over 10 forecasts. 36 hours 75 miles over 8 forecasts. 48 hours 107 miles over 6 forecasts. 60 hours 128 miles over 4 forecasts. 72 hours 211 miles over 2 forecasts.
LeadHow many hours ahead this forecast was made. This map shows 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 when a paired fix exists. Overall rank uses 24, 48, 72, and 120. The technical name is lead. CasesHow many past forecasts went into this average. A forecast counts only when the best track has a fix at that exact time. The technical name is cases. Track errorAverage how far the predicted storm path was from where it actually went, in statute miles. Lower is better. The technical name is track error. Intensity errorAverage how far off the predicted wind speed was, in miles per hour, on this page. Lower is better. The file stores knots. The technical name is intensity error. Forecast max windAverage top wind in the official forecast, in miles per hour, on the paired cases. The file stores knots. The technical name is forecast maximum wind. Best-track windAverage top wind where the storm actually went, in miles per hour, at the same times. The file stores knots. The technical name is best-track wind.
12 h 11 34 mi 3 mph 32 mph 30 mph
24 h 10 49 mi 2 mph 32 mph 30 mph
36 h 8 75 mi 1 mph 29 mph 29 mph
48 h 6 107 mi 1 mph 28 mph 29 mph
60 h 4 128 mi 4 mph 24 mph 29 mph
72 h 2 211 mi 6 mph 23 mph 29 mph

Miles are statute miles. Wind is miles per hour. The National Hurricane Center file stores wind in knots. One knot is about 1.15 miles per hour. Nautical miles are in the technical details.

How we grade

Top wind

12 h 24 h 36 h 48 h 60 h 72 h
Top wind, official forecast versus where the storm went. At 12 hours the forecast averaged 32 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 30 mph. At 24 hours the forecast averaged 32 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 30 mph. At 36 hours the forecast averaged 29 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 29 mph. At 48 hours the forecast averaged 28 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 29 mph. At 60 hours the forecast averaged 24 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 29 mph. At 72 hours the forecast averaged 23 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 29 mph.
  • Official forecast maximum wind
  • Best-track maximum wind

Source: National Hurricane Center / NOAA. The operational b-deck and the public a-deck are U.S. government works in the public domain. Google DeepMind and WeatherNext 3 ensemble means are experimental forecasts from Google DeepMind Weather Lab. Forecasts older than 48 hours are used under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, and ECMWF ENS tracks are ECMWF open data, used under CC BY 4.0. AI GFS tracks are a NOAA AIGFS product. Forecast Scoreboard is not affiliated with NHC, NOAA, Google, or ECMWF.