Full-week weather model rankings
No full-week ranking yet. A model is listed after 90 days scored in at least 30 markets. The National Weather Service is the baseline.
The whole week, with each day ahead counted evenly when both the model and the National Weather Service forecast it. Only sources that cover the whole week are eligible. NAM and HRRR are not, and they are not given a full-week number. A model is listed after 90 days scored in at least 30 markets.
How to read this. A shorter miss is closer to the weather that happened. Beats the NWS means a smaller miss than the National Weather Service on the same days. Behind the NWS means a larger miss. Early read means at least 90 days scored. Proven means 180.
The technical details
Skill is 1 minus this forecast’s mean loss divided by the National Weather Service mean loss on the same days. Loss is the mean absolute error for temperature and the Brier score for rain chance. Zero is a tie. Positive beats the Weather Service. Negative falls behind it.
Days scored are matched days: issue dates with a forecast from this source and from the National Weather Service, and a final observation. A rank starts at 90 matched days. That status is provisional, shown here as Early read. At 180 matched days the status is established, shown here as Proven. Below the first line the row is still collecting and is not a rank.
How sure is a 95% confidence interval: a percentile bootstrap of the score, resampling the matched days 2,000 times. Overlapping intervals are marked tied.
The headline score uses days 1 through 5, with lead weights 0.30, 0.25, 0.20, 0.15, and 0.10. Days 6 and 7 stay out of it. Variable weights are high 0.35, low 0.30, and rain chance 0.35. Observations come from ACIS, with the National Weather Service climate report when ACIS has a hole. Model numbers come from each provider’s public files.
The methodology page is the full reference. How we grade says the same rules in plain English.
Includes archived forecasts back to March 31, 2026.
No ranking yet
No full-week ranking yet. Rankings appear after 90 days scored in at least 30 markets.