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Days 1–5. Compared with the National Weather Service forecast from the same hour. No one pays for a rank.

Hurricane tracks

Remnant Low Genevieve Model Accuracy: DeepMind vs GFS vs WeatherNext 3

Final advisory

NHC issued its final advisory at 2:00 PM ET Sun, Aug 2; Genevieve is now a remnant low.

Remnant Low Genevieve has 52 positions on the best track, which is where the storm actually went, from the operational NHC file. 4 official forecast tracks are drawn. At 48 hours, the average track miss is 40 miles across 38 forecasts. At 48 hours, the official wind forecast averaged 78 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 82 mph. Stored model tracks on these forecast tracks: GFS, GEFS mean, Canadian GEM, UKMET, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, HMON, NAVGEM, Google DeepMind, WeatherNext 3.

EP072026 · 2026 · Jul 24–Aug 6, 2026. Score table. Damage reports.

How to read this. The solid line is where the storm went. A dashed line is where the official forecast said it would go. A smaller path miss is closer. Distances are statute miles. Wind speeds are miles per hour.

The technical details

Path miss on this page is the great-circle distance in statute miles, the same miles as the home card and the score table. The Earth radius is 3,958.7613 miles. The file also keeps that distance in nautical miles. One nautical mile is 1,852 meters, about 1.15 statute miles. A case counts when that forecast and the best track (BEST, lead 0) share the same valid time. Positions are not interpolated. A model track counts even when that cycle has no official forecast yet. Skill against the official forecast (OFCL) still requires the official forecast from the same issue time and lead.

Shown leads are 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 hours, once a paired fix exists. Sample size is the number of paired cases at that lead. Overall rank still uses 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours. The 96-hour lead is drawn when the deck has a paired fix, and it is not in that rank.

Wind on this page is miles per hour. The file stores maximum wind in knots. One knot is about 1.15 miles per hour. An advisory wind is rounded to the nearest 5 mph. A mean on this page is rounded to the nearest mile per hour. Wind miss is the absolute difference on the paired cases. There is no confidence interval on this map. The daily board’s interval is a 95% percentile bootstrap.

Overall rank is the average of the path rank and the wind rank on this storm. Each rank uses the graded leads at 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours, and each of those leads counts once, however many forecasts it holds. A lower miss is the better rank. A tie shares the average of the places those forecasts occupy. A source is ranked only with at least 3 graded forecasts for path and 3 for wind. Fewer than that says Not enough forecasts yet. A source with no graded path, or no graded wind, is left out of both ranks, and overall shows —.

The best track is the operational NHC b-deck. It is preliminary and revised after the season. HURDAT2 is not loaded. Model lines come from the public a-deck for the same forecast tracks, and only when that file stores them. Google DeepMind is the Weather Lab operational ensemble mean. WeatherNext 3 is that model’s ensemble mean from the same download. ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, and the ECMWF ENS mean are tropical-cyclone tracks from ECMWF open data. The ECMWF ENS mean is the average of the member centers in the IFS ensemble track file. AI GFS is NOAA’s AIGFS tracker when that file is still posted. The methodology page names the aids that are scored.

The methodology page is the full reference. How we grade says the same rules in plain English.

The best track is the operational NHC b-deck. It is preliminary and is revised after the season. The post-season HURDAT2 track is not loaded.

ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, ECMWF ENS mean, AI GFS: No graded forecasts yet.

Overall rank

Overall averages each forecast's rank on path and on wind strength. See the separate scores below.

Place on this list. 1 was closest to the weather that happened. A tie shares this number, and the next place skips ahead. Early read until the longer day count, then proven. The forecast source this row scores. Path and wind ranksOverall averages each forecast's rank on path and on wind strength. See the separate scores below. Track rankPlace on path miss. 1 was closest. On one storm this is that place. Across storms it is the average of those places. Each graded lead counts once. A tie shares the average place. Intensity rankPlace on wind miss. 1 was closest. On one storm this is that place. Across storms it is the average of those places. Each graded lead counts once. A tie shares the average place.
1 NHC official 2 3 1
2 Google DeepMind 4.5 2 7
2 HAFS-B 4.5 6 3
2 WeatherNext 3 4.5 1 8
5 HWRF 5 5 5
6 HMON 5.5 9 2
7 HAFS-A 6 8 4
8 Canadian GEM 8 4 12
9 GEFS mean 8.5 7 10
9 GFS 8.5 11 6
11 NAVGEM 10.5 12 9
11 UKMET 10.5 10 11

How we grade

Track and intensity by model

Each row is one source at one lead that has already verified, including 12, 24, 36, and 48 hours. The count is how many forecasts shared a time with where the storm went. Path miss is statute miles. Wind miss is miles per hour. The rank number is that source's place in the table above, and it still uses 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours.

Place on this list. 1 was closest to the weather that happened. A tie shares this number, and the next place skips ahead. Early read until the longer day count, then proven. The forecast source this row scores. LeadHow many hours ahead this forecast was made. Scored leads are 24, 48, 72, and 120. The technical name is lead. CasesHow many past forecasts went into this average. A forecast counts only when the best track has a fix at that exact time. The technical name is cases. Track errorAverage how far the predicted storm path was from where it actually went, in miles. Lower is better. The technical name is track error. Track skillHow that path miss compares with the official hurricane forecast. Positive means better than the official forecast. Negative means worse. The technical name is track skill. Intensity errorAverage how far off the predicted wind speed was, in miles per hour. The file stores knots. Lower is better. The technical name is intensity error. Intensity skillHow that wind miss compares with the official hurricane forecast. Positive means better. Negative means worse. The technical name is intensity skill.
1 NHC official 12 h 38 14 mi — 6 mph —
1 NHC official 24 h 38 25 mi — 9 mph —
1 NHC official 36 h 38 33 mi — 10 mph —
1 NHC official 48 h 38 40 mi — 10 mph —
1 NHC official 60 h 38 47 mi — 8 mph —
1 NHC official 72 h 38 56 mi — 5 mph —
1 NHC official 96 h 33 84 mi — 5 mph —
1 NHC official 120 h 30 127 mi — 5 mph —
2 Google DeepMind 12 h 38 12 mi Beats the official forecast by 13% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 125%
2 Google DeepMind 24 h 38 20 mi Beats the official forecast by 22% 15 mph Behind the official forecast by 76%
2 Google DeepMind 36 h 37 29 mi Beats the official forecast by 13% 17 mph Behind the official forecast by 71%
2 Google DeepMind 48 h 35 40 mi Beats the official forecast by 7% 17 mph Behind the official forecast by 70%
2 Google DeepMind 60 h 34 49 mi Beats the official forecast by 1% 17 mph Behind the official forecast by 96%
2 Google DeepMind 72 h 31 53 mi Behind the official forecast by 5% 15 mph Behind the official forecast by 161%
2 Google DeepMind 96 h 26 53 mi Beats the official forecast by 2% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 167%
2 Google DeepMind 120 h 23 67 mi Beats the official forecast by 10% 12 mph Behind the official forecast by 151%
2 WeatherNext 3 12 h 38 11 mi Beats the official forecast by 20% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 112%
2 WeatherNext 3 24 h 38 17 mi Beats the official forecast by 34% 15 mph Behind the official forecast by 79%
2 WeatherNext 3 36 h 38 22 mi Beats the official forecast by 31% 17 mph Behind the official forecast by 74%
2 WeatherNext 3 48 h 37 31 mi Beats the official forecast by 26% 18 mph Behind the official forecast by 83%
2 WeatherNext 3 60 h 36 38 mi Beats the official forecast by 20% 17 mph Behind the official forecast by 106%
2 WeatherNext 3 72 h 34 45 mi Beats the official forecast by 19% 16 mph Behind the official forecast by 188%
2 WeatherNext 3 96 h 31 57 mi Beats the official forecast by 25% 15 mph Behind the official forecast by 206%
2 WeatherNext 3 120 h 25 54 mi Beats the official forecast by 35% 14 mph Behind the official forecast by 219%
2 HAFS-B 12 h 40 26 mi Behind the official forecast by 47% 12 mph Behind the official forecast by 103%
2 HAFS-B 24 h 41 38 mi Behind the official forecast by 12% 12 mph Behind the official forecast by 36%
2 HAFS-B 36 h 41 38 mi Beats the official forecast by 9% 12 mph Behind the official forecast by 22%
2 HAFS-B 48 h 41 42 mi Beats the official forecast by 14% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 23%
2 HAFS-B 60 h 41 56 mi Behind the official forecast by 7% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 42%
2 HAFS-B 72 h 41 74 mi Behind the official forecast by 23% 12 mph Behind the official forecast by 63%
2 HAFS-B 96 h 39 121 mi Behind the official forecast by 34% 11 mph Behind the official forecast by 66%
2 HAFS-B 120 h 35 170 mi Behind the official forecast by 22% 9 mph Behind the official forecast by 13%
5 HWRF 12 h 40 23 mi Behind the official forecast by 28% 12 mph Behind the official forecast by 112%
5 HWRF 24 h 41 37 mi Behind the official forecast by 7% 14 mph Behind the official forecast by 55%
5 HWRF 36 h 41 40 mi Behind the official forecast by 8% 14 mph Behind the official forecast by 37%
5 HWRF 48 h 41 44 mi Behind the official forecast by 2% 14 mph Behind the official forecast by 29%
5 HWRF 60 h 41 53 mi Behind the official forecast by 5% 14 mph Behind the official forecast by 49%
5 HWRF 72 h 41 69 mi Behind the official forecast by 16% 11 mph Behind the official forecast by 73%
5 HWRF 96 h 39 106 mi Behind the official forecast by 11% 11 mph Behind the official forecast by 80%
5 HWRF 120 h 35 147 mi Behind the official forecast by 6% 9 mph Behind the official forecast by 38%
6 HMON 12 h 40 20 mi Behind the official forecast by 12% 8 mph Behind the official forecast by 37%
6 HMON 24 h 41 34 mi Beats the official forecast by 3% 9 mph Behind the official forecast by 9%
6 HMON 36 h 41 41 mi Behind the official forecast by 13% 11 mph Behind the official forecast by 11%
6 HMON 48 h 41 47 mi Behind the official forecast by 14% 14 mph Behind the official forecast by 34%
6 HMON 60 h 41 55 mi Behind the official forecast by 19% 14 mph Behind the official forecast by 47%
6 HMON 72 h 41 64 mi Behind the official forecast by 22% 10 mph Behind the official forecast by 42%
6 HMON 96 h 39 102 mi Behind the official forecast by 27% 8 mph Behind the official forecast by 45%
6 HMON 120 h 35 167 mi Behind the official forecast by 32% 9 mph Behind the official forecast by 52%
7 HAFS-A 12 h 40 29 mi Behind the official forecast by 60% 11 mph Behind the official forecast by 93%
7 HAFS-A 24 h 41 37 mi Behind the official forecast by 1% 12 mph Behind the official forecast by 39%
7 HAFS-A 36 h 41 34 mi Beats the official forecast by 18% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 30%
7 HAFS-A 48 h 41 39 mi Beats the official forecast by 23% 11 mph Behind the official forecast by 14%
7 HAFS-A 60 h 41 56 mi Behind the official forecast by 5% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 40%
7 HAFS-A 72 h 41 75 mi Behind the official forecast by 27% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 94%
7 HAFS-A 96 h 39 132 mi Behind the official forecast by 49% 11 mph Behind the official forecast by 74%
7 HAFS-A 120 h 35 182 mi Behind the official forecast by 38% 8 mph Behind the official forecast by 35%
8 Canadian GEM 12 h 20 24 mi Behind the official forecast by 53% 35 mph Behind the official forecast by 471%
8 Canadian GEM 24 h 21 40 mi Behind the official forecast by 30% 33 mph Behind the official forecast by 269%
8 Canadian GEM 36 h 21 46 mi Behind the official forecast by 29% 33 mph Behind the official forecast by 243%
8 Canadian GEM 48 h 21 52 mi Behind the official forecast by 24% 33 mph Behind the official forecast by 264%
8 Canadian GEM 60 h 21 65 mi Behind the official forecast by 45% 32 mph Behind the official forecast by 274%
8 Canadian GEM 72 h 21 68 mi Behind the official forecast by 27% 33 mph Behind the official forecast by 411%
8 Canadian GEM 96 h 19 69 mi Beats the official forecast by 21% 29 mph Behind the official forecast by 347%
8 Canadian GEM 120 h 17 108 mi Beats the official forecast by 4% 23 mph Behind the official forecast by 226%
9 GFS 12 h 40 24 mi Behind the official forecast by 51% 17 mph Behind the official forecast by 198%
9 GFS 24 h 42 39 mi Behind the official forecast by 15% 16 mph Behind the official forecast by 96%
9 GFS 36 h 42 48 mi Behind the official forecast by 24% 16 mph Behind the official forecast by 72%
9 GFS 48 h 42 55 mi Behind the official forecast by 21% 17 mph Behind the official forecast by 77%
9 GFS 60 h 42 73 mi Behind the official forecast by 38% 16 mph Behind the official forecast by 73%
9 GFS 72 h 42 88 mi Behind the official forecast by 41% 15 mph Behind the official forecast by 114%
9 GFS 96 h 40 141 mi Behind the official forecast by 48% 11 mph Behind the official forecast by 42%
9 GFS 120 h 36 208 mi Behind the official forecast by 41% 7 mph Beats the official forecast by 3%
9 GEFS mean 12 h 40 22 mi Behind the official forecast by 31% 24 mph Behind the official forecast by 334%
9 GEFS mean 24 h 42 35 mi Behind the official forecast by 5% 23 mph Behind the official forecast by 192%
9 GEFS mean 36 h 42 43 mi Behind the official forecast by 13% 23 mph Behind the official forecast by 159%
9 GEFS mean 48 h 42 51 mi Behind the official forecast by 11% 23 mph Behind the official forecast by 151%
9 GEFS mean 60 h 42 62 mi Behind the official forecast by 17% 23 mph Behind the official forecast by 168%
9 GEFS mean 72 h 42 76 mi Behind the official forecast by 21% 23 mph Behind the official forecast by 227%
9 GEFS mean 96 h 40 120 mi Behind the official forecast by 27% 19 mph Behind the official forecast by 140%
9 GEFS mean 120 h 36 169 mi Behind the official forecast by 16% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 43%
11 UKMET 12 h 20 24 mi Behind the official forecast by 71% 27 mph Behind the official forecast by 346%
11 UKMET 24 h 21 42 mi Behind the official forecast by 62% 28 mph Behind the official forecast by 206%
11 UKMET 36 h 21 58 mi Behind the official forecast by 67% 29 mph Behind the official forecast by 185%
11 UKMET 48 h 21 72 mi Behind the official forecast by 64% 29 mph Behind the official forecast by 202%
11 UKMET 60 h 21 88 mi Behind the official forecast by 77% 29 mph Behind the official forecast by 220%
11 UKMET 72 h 21 96 mi Behind the official forecast by 68% 30 mph Behind the official forecast by 342%
11 UKMET 96 h 20 108 mi Behind the official forecast by 16% 24 mph Behind the official forecast by 264%
11 UKMET 120 h 18 126 mi Beats the official forecast by 5% 18 mph Behind the official forecast by 121%
11 NAVGEM 12 h 38 58 mi Behind the official forecast by 207% 28 mph Behind the official forecast by 405%
11 NAVGEM 24 h 39 76 mi Behind the official forecast by 148% 24 mph Behind the official forecast by 194%
11 NAVGEM 36 h 39 88 mi Behind the official forecast by 154% 19 mph Behind the official forecast by 107%
11 NAVGEM 48 h 39 112 mi Behind the official forecast by 165% 15 mph Behind the official forecast by 89%
11 NAVGEM 60 h 39 139 mi Behind the official forecast by 178% 14 mph Behind the official forecast by 106%
11 NAVGEM 72 h 38 156 mi Behind the official forecast by 164% 15 mph Behind the official forecast by 142%
11 NAVGEM 96 h 37 184 mi Behind the official forecast by 100% 15 mph Behind the official forecast by 167%
11 NAVGEM 120 h 33 212 mi Behind the official forecast by 45% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 217%

How we grade

ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, ECMWF ENS mean, AI GFS: No graded forecasts yet.

Track map

The solid line is the best track. Dashed lines are official forecast tracks from a few advisories, from the issue position out through the leads stored in that advisory. Thinner lines are model tracks from NHC’s public a-deck for those same advisories, and only when that file actually contains them. Google DeepMind and WeatherNext 3 are ensemble-mean tracks from Weather Lab, drawn on those same advisories. ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, and the ECMWF ENS mean are open-data cyclone tracks, drawn the same way. AI GFS is NOAA’s AIGFS tracker, drawn when that file is still posted.

3°N 22°N 42°N 61°N 163°W 140°W 116°W 92°W
Map of Remnant Low Genevieve. The best track, where the storm actually went, has 52 positions. 4 official forecast tracks are drawn. Model lines: GFS, GEFS mean, Canadian GEM, UKMET, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, HMON, NAVGEM, Google DeepMind, WeatherNext 3. Latitude and longitude, scaled by the cosine of the mid-latitude so a degree of longitude is not stretched.
  • Actual track (52 positions)
  • NHC official Jul 24, 12:00 UTC
  • NHC official Jul 27, 12:00 UTC
  • NHC official Jul 30, 18:00 UTC
  • NHC official Aug 2, 18:00 UTC
  • GFS
  • GEFS mean
  • Canadian GEM
  • UKMET
  • HAFS-A
  • HAFS-B
  • HWRF
  • HMON
  • NAVGEM
  • Google DeepMind
  • WeatherNext 3

The chart measures how far the track was off in statute miles, the same miles as the home card. It includes 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 hours when a paired fix exists. The overall rank uses 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours. Positions are not interpolated.

How far the track was off

14 mi 12 h 25 mi 24 h 33 mi 36 h 40 mi 48 h 47 mi 60 h 56 mi 72 h 84 mi 96 h 127 mi 120 h
Average official track miss in miles by how far ahead. 12 hours 14 miles over 38 forecasts. 24 hours 25 miles over 38 forecasts. 36 hours 33 miles over 38 forecasts. 48 hours 40 miles over 38 forecasts. 60 hours 47 miles over 38 forecasts. 72 hours 56 miles over 38 forecasts. 96 hours 84 miles over 33 forecasts. 120 hours 127 miles over 30 forecasts.
LeadHow many hours ahead this forecast was made. This map shows 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 when a paired fix exists. Overall rank uses 24, 48, 72, and 120. The technical name is lead. CasesHow many past forecasts went into this average. A forecast counts only when the best track has a fix at that exact time. The technical name is cases. Track errorAverage how far the predicted storm path was from where it actually went, in statute miles. Lower is better. The technical name is track error. Intensity errorAverage how far off the predicted wind speed was, in miles per hour, on this page. Lower is better. The file stores knots. The technical name is intensity error. Forecast max windAverage top wind in the official forecast, in miles per hour, on the paired cases. The file stores knots. The technical name is forecast maximum wind. Best-track windAverage top wind where the storm actually went, in miles per hour, at the same times. The file stores knots. The technical name is best-track wind.
12 h 38 14 mi 6 mph 86 mph 88 mph
24 h 38 25 mi 9 mph 84 mph 87 mph
36 h 38 33 mi 10 mph 82 mph 85 mph
48 h 38 40 mi 10 mph 78 mph 82 mph
60 h 38 47 mi 8 mph 73 mph 77 mph
72 h 38 56 mi 5 mph 68 mph 70 mph
96 h 33 84 mi 5 mph 63 mph 62 mph
120 h 30 127 mi 5 mph 55 mph 52 mph

Miles are statute miles. Wind is miles per hour. The National Hurricane Center file stores wind in knots. One knot is about 1.15 miles per hour. Nautical miles are in the technical details.

How we grade

Top wind

12 h 24 h 36 h 48 h 60 h 72 h 96 h 120 h
Top wind, official forecast versus where the storm went. At 12 hours the forecast averaged 86 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 88 mph. At 24 hours the forecast averaged 84 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 87 mph. At 36 hours the forecast averaged 82 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 85 mph. At 48 hours the forecast averaged 78 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 82 mph. At 60 hours the forecast averaged 73 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 77 mph. At 72 hours the forecast averaged 68 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 70 mph. At 96 hours the forecast averaged 63 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 62 mph. At 120 hours the forecast averaged 55 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 52 mph.
  • Official forecast maximum wind
  • Best-track maximum wind

Source: National Hurricane Center / NOAA. The operational b-deck and the public a-deck are U.S. government works in the public domain. Google DeepMind and WeatherNext 3 ensemble means are experimental forecasts from Google DeepMind Weather Lab. Forecasts older than 48 hours are used under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, and ECMWF ENS tracks are ECMWF open data, used under CC BY 4.0. AI GFS tracks are a NOAA AIGFS product. Forecast Scoreboard is not affiliated with NHC, NOAA, Google, or ECMWF.