Forecast Scoreboard Forecast
Scoreboard

Days 1–5. Compared with the National Weather Service forecast from the same hour. No one pays for a rank.

Events

Southeast and Tennessee Valley Severe Storms Final Scorecard, Nov 4, 2026

Southeast and Tennessee Valley severe storms (Nov 4, 2026) maps National Weather Service tornado, hail, and wind reports inside the stored search area. 7 National Weather Service local storm reports are on file for tornado, hail, and wind. Stored counts: 2 wind, 5 wind damage. Reports were filed at these places: 2 S Camp Creek, TN; Cades Cove, TN; 1 NW Pine Ridge, AL; 4 E Killen, AL; 1 W Pine Ridge, AL; 3 SE Wears Valley, TN; 4 W Eva, AL. The final scorecard grades the archived Day 1 severe outlook for each date against the stored local storm reports. That score stays as it was written. The damage map keeps National Weather Service tornado, hail, and wind reports for central and northeast Alabama, northern and central Georgia, and middle and eastern Tennessee, including the southern Appalachians, inside the stored search area. Birmingham, Huntsville, Montgomery, Atlanta, Columbus, Georgia, Macon, Nashville, Chattanooga, and Knoxville are tracked markets in that area. Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, the Tri-Cities, Greenville, Augusta, Savannah, Columbus, Mississippi, and Jackson, Tennessee sit outside it. The date is Wednesday, November 4. Wednesday's risk is isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado across parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians, especially from northeast Alabama across northern Georgia. Thunderstorms are expected from central and eastern Kentucky across middle and eastern Tennessee into northern Alabama and Georgia. The Storm Prediction Center Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks have no severe thunderstorm area, so this page closes after Wednesday, November 4.

Wrap-up

Finished span: Nov 4, 2026. 7 tornado, hail, and wind reports are on file. No warning is on file. No stored report fell during the Day 1 severe outlook for these dates, so there is no inside or outside count. 7 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts. No forecast is stored next to an observation, so this page does not rank a source.

This event is over.

Final scorecard

No stored report fell during the Day 1 severe outlook for these dates, so there is no inside or outside count. 7 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts.

November 4, 2026: no stored report fell during this outlook.

The technical details

The grade uses the Storm Prediction Center Day 1 categorical outlook issued at 1630 UTC for each event date, from the public archive GeoJSON named day1otlk_YYYYMMDD_1630_cat.lyr.geojson. Later updates at 2000 UTC and 0100 UTC are not used, and neither are the 0600 UTC or 1300 UTC issuances. One issuance keeps every date on the same product. A report counts when its time is at or after that issuance and before 12 UTC the next day, which is the valid window written on the product. A report exactly at 12 UTC is not in the window. Reports between 12 UTC and 1630 UTC are not graded, because this outlook was not valid yet. A report on the outline counts as inside. A point in more than one outline is counted once, in the higher risk: High, then Moderate, Enhanced, Slight, and Marginal. General thunder is the categorical thunder outline. It is not a Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, or High risk, so it is not part of the inside count. The check is the outline itself. A report just outside the line counts as outside. This is not the Storm Prediction Center neighborhood that treats a nearby report as inside. The stored local storm reports are the ones already kept for this event. A day whose archive file could not be fetched has no score. A day that has been graded is not replaced on a later collect.

The methodology page is the full reference. How we grade says the same rule in plain English.

Nov 4, 2026. The damage map keeps the local storm reports for this storm.

Damage reports

Outlook

The damage map keeps National Weather Service tornado, hail, and wind reports for central and northeast Alabama, northern and central Georgia, and middle and eastern Tennessee, including the southern Appalachians, inside the stored search area. Birmingham, Huntsville, Montgomery, Atlanta, Columbus, Georgia, Macon, Nashville, Chattanooga, and Knoxville are tracked markets in that area. Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, the Tri-Cities, Greenville, Augusta, Savannah, Columbus, Mississippi, and Jackson, Tennessee sit outside it. The date is Wednesday, November 4. Wednesday's risk is isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado across parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians, especially from northeast Alabama across northern Georgia. Thunderstorms are expected from central and eastern Kentucky across middle and eastern Tennessee into northern Alabama and Georgia. The Storm Prediction Center Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks have no severe thunderstorm area, so this page closes after Wednesday, November 4.

Damage map