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Days 1–5. Compared with the National Weather Service forecast from the same hour. No one pays for a rank.

Events

Mid-South Flash Flood Final Scorecard, Nov 3-4, 2026

Mid-South flash flood (Nov 3-4, 2026) maps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports, and flash flood warnings are drawn on the damage map. 29 National Weather Service local storm reports are on file for flood and heavy rain. The largest rainfall total in the stored reports is 35 inches at Mccaysville-Copperhill, GA. Reports were filed at these places: 1 E Mccaysville-Copperh, GA; Mccaysville, GA; Mccaysville-Copperhill, GA; 1 W Mccaysville-Copperh, GA; 4 N Mineral Bluff, GA; Higdon, GA; 2 W Nottely Dam, GA; Mccaysville-Copperhill, TN; 2 W Mccaysville-Copperh, TN; 2 NW Blue Ridge, GA; 3 NW Cherry Log, GA; 1 N Epworth, GA, and 7 more. No flash flood warning verified for this storm. That is the stored result. No stored forecast rain total lines up with a complete observed total, so this page does not say which source came closest. A dash means that source or station has no stored rainfall total. The final scorecard grades the archived Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook for each date against the stored local storm reports. That score stays as it was written. The damage map keeps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports for the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley, and on through the lower Ohio Valley and the southern Appalachians, inside the stored search area. Memphis, Nashville, Jackson in Tennessee, Greenwood, Columbus–Tupelo, Huntsville, Bowling Green, Paducah, Louisville, Lexington, Cincinnati, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and Tri-Cities are tracked markets in that area. Birmingham, Little Rock, Jackson in Mississippi, Atlanta, and St. Louis sit outside it. The dates run Tuesday, November 3, through Wednesday, November 4, covering the Day 1 excessive-rainfall window from 12Z November 3 through 12Z November 4 and the Day 2 window that begins at 12Z November 4.

Wrap-up

Finished span: Nov 3-4, 2026. 29 flood and heavy-rain reports are on file. No flash flood warning is on file. 10 of 10 stored reports fell inside the excessive-rainfall risk area, and none fell outside. Inside: 10 in a Marginal Risk. The grade uses the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook issued at 16 UTC on each event date. No forecast is stored next to an observation, so this page does not rank a source.

This event is over.

Final scorecard

10 of 10 stored reports fell inside the excessive-rainfall risk area, and none fell outside. Inside: 10 in a Marginal Risk. The grade uses the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook issued at 16 UTC on each event date.

November 3, 2026: no stored report fell during this outlook.

November 4, 2026: 10 of 10 reports were inside a risk area and none were outside (10 in a Marginal Risk).

The technical details

The grade uses the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued at 16 UTC for each event date, from the public archive shapefile named shp_94e_YYYYMMDD16.zip. The other Day 1 issuances that day are not used, so every date is graded on the same afternoon product. A report counts when its time is at or after 16 UTC and before 12 UTC the next day, which is the valid window written on the product. A report exactly at 12 UTC is not in the window. Reports between 12 UTC and 16 UTC are not graded, because this outlook was not valid yet. A report on the outline counts as inside. A point in more than one outline is counted once, in the higher risk: High, then Moderate, Slight, and Marginal. The check is the outline itself. A report just outside the line counts as outside. The stored local storm reports are the flood and heavy-rain reports already kept for this event. A day whose archive file could not be fetched has no score. A day that has been graded is not replaced on a later collect.

The methodology page is the full reference. How we grade says the same rule in plain English.

Nov 3, 2026 – Nov 4, 2026. The damage map keeps the local storm reports for this storm.

Damage reports

Observed rainfall

These are National Weather Service cooperative-observer totals for the 24 hours ending around 7am on the morning after each day of the event. A station that missed a morning is not filled in with zero.

  • None
  • Under 0.5 in
  • 0.5–1 in
  • 1–2 in
  • 2–4 in
  • Over 4 in
Where this observed rainfall total was measured. Observed rainfall for the event window, in inches. A missing day is not filled in with zero. How many stored days are in this rainfall total. A station that missed a day is not counted as zero.
CHRISTIANA 5W 4.77 in 2
MURFREESBORO 5N 3.4 in 2
MURPHY 3.25 in 2
BETHPAGE 1S 3.21 in 2
FRANKLIN SEWAGE PLANT 3.02 in 2
PORTLAND SEWAGE PLANT 2.95 in 2
WARNER PARKS NATURE CENTER 2.95 in 2
LEBANON 2.94 in 2
WHITE HOUSE 2.93 in 2
100 AKIN RD SOMERVILLE TN 32068 2.81 in 2
LARC-SWG TR PLT 2.8 in 2
GA MTN EXP STN 2.64 in 2
OLD HICKORY 2.63 in 2
BERRY FIELD/PERCY PRIEST LK 1W 2.62 in 2
LEBANON 7N 2.57 in 2
WITHIN CITY LIMITS 2.48 in 2
ANDERSON 2.43 in 2
SCOTTSVILLE 2.37 in 2
ALAMO 1N 2.36 in 2
SHELBYVILLE MUNI. AIRPORT 2.21 in 2
Bowling Green Snow 2.2 in 2
Grand Junction - Ames Plantation 2.16 in 2
STATE POLICE POST 1 2.16 in 2
OLD HICKORY DAM 2.1 in 2
BATESVILLE 2 SW 2 in 2
DAYTON 2 in 1
Arkabutla Dam 1.98 in 2
WEST MEMPHIS 1.98 in 2
BOWLING GREEN 1.95 in 2
MT PLEASANT 1N 1.9 in 2
PULASKI WASTEWATER PLANT 1.78 in 2
ADDISON 1.75 in 2
OHIO R MCALPINE L & D 1.75 in 2
Greenburg Water Plant 1.68 in 2
UNIVERSITY 1.67 in 2
FORT MASSAC STATE PARK 1.66 in 2
Mayfield 2S 1.66 in 1
SEWANEE 1.6 in 2
GERMANTOWN 1.54 in 2
BOLIVAR WATER WORKS 1.52 in 2
BRANDENBURG 1.5 in 2
RUSSELLVILLE 1.5 in 2
Ridgeview Estates - Frankfort 1.5 in 2
Columbus 1.49 in 2
DECATUR 5 SE 1.49 in 2
CORNERS 1.47 in 2
LAWRENCEBURG WWTP 1.46 in 1
Cynthiana 1.45 in 2
LAKE 1.45 in 2
WASTE WATER TRTMNT PLT MAN.PRECIP 1.44 in 2
KINGSTON 1.43 in 1
POWER STATION 1.43 in 2
BELLE MINA 2 N 1.41 in 2
HERRINGTON LAKE-DIX DAM 1.35 in 2
Jackson 4NE 1.35 in 2
MARIANNA 1.35 in 2
Milan 1.34 in 2
OWENS CROSS ROADS 3S 1.32 in 2
WALKER CO. AIRPORT 1.29 in 2
BIG CK UTILITY DIST 1.28 in 2
Central 1.27 in 2
Muscle Shoals 1.27 in 2
Murray 1.25 in 2
SPRINGFIELD EXPERIMENTAL STATION 1.23 in 2
AHOS-T DARDC KY 18 1.21 in 2
Shepherdsville 1.21 in 2
FALL CRK FALLS ST PARK 1.2 in 2
Owenton 1N 1.2 in 2
ATHENS 1.15 in 2
DRY RIDGE 1.14 in 2
UNIVERSITY 1.13 in 2
PLEASANT HILL 1.11 in 2
Rabbit Hash 2NE 1.11 in 2
DECATURVILLE 1.1 in 2
Cheviot 3W 1.06 in 2
Lenior City - Water Plant 1.06 in 2
NORTH VERNON 2 ESE 1.05 in 2
OUTSIDE CITY LIMITS 1.05 in 2
FAIRFIELD 1.04 in 2
MADISON 2 N 1.04 in 2
BELZONI 1.03 in 2
RUSSELLVILLE NUMBER 2 1.03 in 2
MEMPHIS WFO 1.02 in 2
JONESBORO 1 in 2
ROGERSVILLE 1 in 2
GUNTERSVILLE 0.98 in 2
Guntersville Water Plant 0.98 in 2
Beedeville 4 Ne 0.97 in 2
Clifty Creek 0.97 in 2
POINSETT STATE PARK 0.97 in 1
KINGSTON SPRINGS 0.95 in 2
PARAGOULD 0.94 in 2
CHARLOTTE 0.9 in 2
FAIRVIEW BOWIE NATURE CENTER 0.9 in 2
Oakman 1NNE 0.9 in 2
Pennington 0.9 in 2
CITY OF LYNCHBURG WATER TREATMT PLANT 0.89 in 2
Danville 0.88 in 1
MOUSE TAIL LANDING STATE PARK 0.88 in 1
Moores Hill 5E 0.88 in 2
PARIS 0.85 in 2
WATER PLANT 0.82 in 2
WARSAW 0.79 in 2
Dexter 1E 0.78 in 2
HAMILTON 0.78 in 2
CADIZ 0.75 in 2
MONTGOMERY BELL STATE PARK 0.75 in 2
MOULTON 2 0.72 in 2
CHEATHAM LOCK & DAM 0.7 in 2
CROFTON 3 N 0.7 in 2
LOCATED ALONG THE BUFFALO RVR 0.67 in 2
Elkton 0.63 in 1
SAVANNAH 6SW 0.58 in 1
BANKHEAD LOCK AND DAM 0.56 in 1
LEXINGTON 0.56 in 2
LOUISVILLE KY 0.56 in 1
PONTOTOC 0.52 in 1
WAYNESBORO 0.51 in 2
WAPPAPELLO DAM 0.48 in 2
COLUMBIA 3WNW 0.46 in 2
DOVER 0.46 in 2
FAYETTE 0.46 in 1
MONTEREY 0.44 in 2
HERNDON 0.43 in 1
HOLT LOCK AND DAM 0.43 in 2
ALICIA 0.4 in 2
BLACK ROCK 0.4 in 2
CALHOUN CITY 0.39 in 2
Huntsville 7SE - Hampton Cove Elem 0.39 in 2
ROCK ISLAND 1NE 0.37 in 2
VERNON 0.36 in 2
TENNESSEE NWR DUCK R 0.35 in 1
Elizabethtown 0.33 in 2
SPARTA 0.32 in 2
Corinth 0.3 in 2
EXPERIMENT STATION 0.3 in 1
CLEARWATER DAM 0.28 in 2
Guntown 3 Nw 0.28 in 1
BOONEVILLE 0.27 in 1
Williamstown - Ark Encounter 0.26 in 1
KOSCIUSKO COOP 0.25 in 2
BELMONT 0.24 in 1
CLARKSDALE 0.19 in 1
ALICEVILLE LOCK AND DAM 0.15 in 2
TUPELO 3/CITY WATER PLT/MAN PRECIP 0.13 in 2
STATE UNIVERSITY COOP 0.12 in 2
MIAMITOWN 0.06 in 1
COFFEEVILLE 0.02 in 1
ABERDEEN L & D 0 in 1
CLEVELAND COOP 0 in 1
DAIRY EXPERIMENT STATION 0 in 1
EXPERIMENT STATION 0 in 2
GATLINBURG 0 in 1
Hernando 0 in 1
TOWNSEND 5S 0 in 1
WILLIAMSVILLE 0 in 2

Source: National Weather Service cooperative observers, via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet 7am precipitation product. Forecast Scoreboard is not affiliated with NWS, NOAA, or Iowa State University.

Map tiles © OpenStreetMap contributors. OpenStreetMap copyright.

Outlook

The damage map keeps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports for the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley, and on through the lower Ohio Valley and the southern Appalachians, inside the stored search area. Memphis, Nashville, Jackson in Tennessee, Greenwood, Columbus–Tupelo, Huntsville, Bowling Green, Paducah, Louisville, Lexington, Cincinnati, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and Tri-Cities are tracked markets in that area. Birmingham, Little Rock, Jackson in Mississippi, Atlanta, and St. Louis sit outside it. The dates run Tuesday, November 3, through Wednesday, November 4, covering the Day 1 excessive-rainfall window from 12Z November 3 through 12Z November 4 and the Day 2 window that begins at 12Z November 4. Flash flood warnings issued during these dates stay on the map after they expire. Model storm-total rainfall is the sum of daily precipitation from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. It is graded against the final observed total after the last day.

Damage map

Stored excessive-rainfall discussion

Weather Prediction Center

The stored Weather Prediction Center excessive-rainfall discussion does not cover this event's dates, so this page does not quote it.

Model rain

Storm-total rainfall is the sum of daily precipitation from the forecast of record issued on or before Nov 3. A short-range model that does not cover every day is labeled with the days it has. Missing days are not filled in. The National Weather Service column is a rainfall total only when a quantitative precipitation forecast is stored. The grade is how far that total sits from the final observed total. It stays pending until the event has ended and every day has a final observation. After the event ends, a forecast that still does not cover every day is incomplete, and a final total that is still missing two days later is not left pending.

A market whose climate site is inside the stored Southwest search area, or a west Texas market just east of that area. Sum of stored daily GFS precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. Missing days are not filled in. Sum of stored daily ECMWF IFS precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. Missing days are not filled in. Sum of stored daily ECMWF AIFS precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. Missing days are not filled in. Sum of stored daily Canadian GEM precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. Missing days are not filled in. Sum of stored daily ICON precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. Missing days are not filled in. Sum of stored daily NAM precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. NAM covers about one or two days, so a short total says how many days are stored. Sum of stored daily HRRR precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. HRRR covers about one or two days, so a short total says how many days are stored. National Weather Service storm-total rainfall, in inches, only when a quantitative precipitation forecast is stored. A rain chance is not shown as inches. Sum of final daily precipitation from ACIS, in inches. Pending until every day of the event has a final observation. Two days after the event ends, a missing total says No final total.
Bowling Green 1.26 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.26 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.45 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 2.67 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.05 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.43 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete — 1.63 in
Chattanooga 0.4 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.05 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.16 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.02 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.67 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.59 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete — 1.56 in
Cincinnati 0.54 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.57 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.91 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.14 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.71 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete — 1 in
Columbus–Tupelo–West Point–Starkville 0.38 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.42 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.47 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.17 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.33 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.02 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.61 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete — 0.17 in
Greenwood–Greenville 0.18 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.14 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.21 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.16 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.07 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.53 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.01 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete — 0.94 in
Huntsville–Decatur (Florence) 0.43 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.91 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.1 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.82 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.88 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.12 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.03 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete — 0.91 in
Jackson, TN 0.33 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.15 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.33 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.38 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.55 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.32 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.71 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete — 1.32 in
Jonesboro 0 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.01 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.47 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete — 0.89 in
Knoxville 0.3 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.68 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.7 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.69 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.7 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.3 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete — 1 in
Lexington 1.54 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.88 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.02 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.93 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.67 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.06 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete — 2.03 in
Louisville 0.52 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.82 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.08 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.77 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 2.16 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.32 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete — 1.47 in
Memphis 0 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.01 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.01 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.04 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.33 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.01 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete — 1.49 in
Nashville 2.45 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.58 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.31 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 2.21 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.3 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.08 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.94 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete — 2.55 in
Paducah–Cape Girardeau–Harrisburg 0.01 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.5 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.12 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.05 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.58 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.24 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.11 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete — 2.09 in
Tri-Cities, TN-VA 0.2 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 1.01 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.41 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.07 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.3 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete 0.29 in, 1 of 2 days · Incomplete — 0.45 in

A National Weather Service rain chance is on file for at least one of these markets. It is not a storm-total rainfall, so that column stays a dash.

How we grade

No stored forecast rain total lines up with a complete observed total, so this page does not say which source came closest. A dash means that source or station has no stored rainfall total.