West Texas Flash Flood Final Scorecard, Oct 15-16, 2026

Name: West Texas flash flood
Start: 2026-10-15
End: 2026-10-16
Location: United States

West Texas flash flood (Oct 15-16, 2026) maps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports, and flash flood warnings are drawn on the damage map. 5 National Weather Service local storm reports are on file for flood and heavy rain. Reports were filed at these places: 4 N Fairview, TX; 4 N Midland Internation, TX; 1 W Stanton, TX; 4 WNW Midland, TX; 1 WSW Midland, TX. No flash flood warning is on file yet. No model rainfall forecast is stored next to an observed total for this flood, so the page does not publish a model-versus-observed score. The final scorecard grades the archived Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook for each date against the stored local storm reports. That score stays as it was written. Weather Prediction Center Day 2 excessive-rainfall outlook, valid from 12Z October 15 through 12Z October 16, 2026: a Moderate Risk, level 3 of 4, for portions of West Texas from just east of Big Bend along the Rio Grande, across the Stockton Plateau to the Pecos River Valley, and north to just past the I-10 corridor. HREF and RRFS both show a 70 to 90 percent chance of more than 3 inches, and a 40 to 60 percent chance of more than 5 inches, with local totals of 6 to 7 inches possible. Storms are expected Thursday afternoon through the cold front, which is not expected until the early hours of Friday. The damage map keeps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports for the Midland, San Angelo, and El Paso areas, and draws flash flood warnings while they are active. Reports keep updating through Friday.

Wrap-up

Finished span: Oct 15-16, 2026. 5 flood and heavy-rain reports are on file. No flash flood warning is on file. 4 of 4 stored reports fell inside the excessive-rainfall risk area, and none fell outside. Inside: 4 in a Marginal Risk. 1 other stored report was not inside a graded valid time, so it is not in those counts. No forecast is stored next to an observation, so this page does not rank a source.

This event is over.

Final scorecard

4 of 4 stored reports fell inside the excessive-rainfall risk area, and none fell outside. Inside: 4 in a Marginal Risk. 1 other stored report was not inside a graded valid time, so it is not in those counts.

October 15, 2026: 4 of 4 reports were inside a risk area and none were outside (4 in a Marginal Risk).

October 16, 2026: no stored report fell during this outlook.

The technical details

The grade uses the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued at 16 UTC for each event date, from the public archive shapefile named shp_94e_YYYYMMDD16.zip. The other Day 1 issuances that day are not used, so every date is graded on the same afternoon product. A report counts when its time is at or after 16 UTC and before 12 UTC the next day, which is the valid window written on the product. A report exactly at 12 UTC is not in the window. Reports between 12 UTC and 16 UTC are not graded, because this outlook was not valid yet. A report on the outline counts as inside. A point in more than one outline is counted once, in the higher risk: High, then Moderate, Slight, and Marginal. The check is the outline itself. A report just outside the line counts as outside. The stored local storm reports are the flood and heavy-rain reports already kept for this event. A day whose archive file could not be fetched has no score. A day that has been graded is not replaced on a later collect.

The methodology page is the full reference. How we grade says the same rule in plain English.

Oct 15, 2026 – Oct 16, 2026. The damage map keeps the local storm reports for this storm.

Damage reports

Observed rainfall

These are National Weather Service cooperative-observer totals for the 24 hours ending around 7am on the morning after each day of the event. A station that missed a morning is not filled in with zero.

None
Under 0.5 in
0.5–1 in
1–2 in
2–4 in
Over 4 in


EDEN	3.95 in	2
0.7MI N. OF PO AT FORT MCKAVETT.TX	3.1 in	2
BURKETT	3.08 in	1
GLEN COVE	2.74 in	1
Coleman	2.7 in	2
SANTA ANNA 12SSE	2.27 in	2
S. LLANO RVR STATE PARK OUTSIDE	2.01 in	2
Coleman - Hords Creek Dam	1.86 in	2
CHISOS BASIN CO-OP	1.7 in	2
CASTOLON RANGER STATION CO-OP	1.68 in	2
Christoval 3SSW	1.14 in	1
Tuscola - Lake Abilene State Park	1 in	2
PANTHER JUNCTION CO-OP	0.93 in	2
PERSIMMON GAP CO-OP	0.86 in	2
ABILENE	0.82 in	2
LAJITAS CO-OP	0.79 in	2
RIO GRANDE VILLAGE	0.63 in	2
SAN ANGELO WFO	0.59 in	2
Mertzon	0.51 in	1
Fort Stockton 38SE	0.36 in	2
ELDORADO	0.32 in	2
Midland Intl Arpt	0.27 in	2
Tankersley 7Nw	0.25 in	1
Sterling City 8NW	0.17 in	1
Harper	0.06 in	2
AMISTAD	0.04 in	2
MOUNT LOCKE CO-OP	0.02 in	2
Brantley Dam near Carlsbad	0 in	2
COPE RANCH CO-OP	0 in	2
CRANE 2E CO-OP	0 in	2
Hunt 10W	0 in	2
INGRAM	0 in	2
KENT 8SE CO-OP	0 in	2
Sabinal	0 in	2
WATER VALLEY	0 in	2

Source: National Weather Service cooperative observers, via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet 7am precipitation product. Forecast Scoreboard is not affiliated with NWS, NOAA, or Iowa State University.

Outlook

Weather Prediction Center Day 2 excessive-rainfall outlook, valid from 12Z October 15 through 12Z October 16, 2026: a Moderate Risk, level 3 of 4, for portions of West Texas from just east of Big Bend along the Rio Grande, across the Stockton Plateau to the Pecos River Valley, and north to just past the I-10 corridor. HREF and RRFS both show a 70 to 90 percent chance of more than 3 inches, and a 40 to 60 percent chance of more than 5 inches, with local totals of 6 to 7 inches possible. Storms are expected Thursday afternoon through the cold front, which is not expected until the early hours of Friday. The damage map keeps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports for the Midland, San Angelo, and El Paso areas, and draws flash flood warnings while they are active. Reports keep updating through Friday.

Damage map