East Coast and Southeastern New England Heavy Rain Final Scorecard, Nov 6, 2026

Wrap-up

Finished span: Nov 6, 2026. 44 flood and heavy-rain reports are on file. 4 flash flood warnings are on file. 34 of 34 stored reports fell inside the excessive-rainfall risk area, and none fell outside. Inside: 27 in a Slight Risk and 7 in a Marginal Risk. 10 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts. The grade uses the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook issued at 16 UTC on each event date. HRRR had the smallest stored rainfall miss, 0.746667 inches on average. Those rows are storm-total rain, not a forecast range, so there is no hit rate.

Final scorecard

34 of 34 stored reports fell inside the excessive-rainfall risk area, and none fell outside. Inside: 27 in a Slight Risk and 7 in a Marginal Risk. 10 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts. The grade uses the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook issued at 16 UTC on each event date.

November 6, 2026: 34 of 34 reports were inside a risk area and none were outside (27 in a Slight Risk and 7 in a Marginal Risk).

Observed rainfall

These are National Weather Service cooperative-observer totals for the 24 hours ending around 7am on the morning after each day of the event. A station that missed a morning is not filled in with zero.

• None
• Under 0.5 in
• 0.5–1 in
• 1–2 in
• 2–4 in
• Over 4 in

Source: National Weather Service cooperative observers, via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet 7am precipitation product. Forecast Scoreboard is not affiliated with NWS, NOAA, or Iowa State University.

Map tiles © OpenStreetMap contributors. OpenStreetMap copyright.

Outlook

The damage map keeps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports for the East Coast and southeastern New England, inside the stored search area. Boston, Providence–New Bedford, Hartford–New Haven, New York, Portland–Auburn, Salisbury, Norfolk, Raleigh–Durham, and Greenville–New Bern–Washington are tracked markets in that area. Boston, New York, Gray, Wakefield, and Raleigh are the National Weather Service offices for those airports. Springfield, Albany, Bangor, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Richmond, Wilmington, Charlotte, and Charleston sit outside it. The date is Friday, November 6, the Day 1 excessive-rainfall window from 12Z November 6 through 12Z November 7. A Slight Risk covers parts of southeastern New England, including Boston and Providence, and reaches eastern Connecticut and far eastern Long Island. A Marginal Risk covers the rest of that coast, from Portland, Maine, through New York and the southern Delmarva to southeast Virginia, northeast North Carolina, and the Raleigh area, including Hampton Roads and coastal New Jersey. Flash flood warnings issued during this date stay on the map after they expire. Tornado, hail, and wind reports for the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic stay on the severe storms page. Model storm-total rainfall is the sum of daily precipitation from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. It is graded against the final observed total after the last day.

Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic severe storms. Tornado, hail, and wind reports for the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic are on that page.

Damage map

Stored excessive-rainfall discussion

Weather Prediction Center

The stored Weather Prediction Center excessive-rainfall discussion does not cover this event's dates, so this page does not quote it.

Model rain

Storm-total rainfall is the sum of daily precipitation from the forecast of record issued on or before Nov 6. A short-range model that does not cover every day is labeled with the days it has. Missing days are not filled in. The National Weather Service column is a rainfall total only when a quantitative precipitation forecast is stored. The grade is how far that total sits from the final observed total. It stays pending until the event has ended and every day has a final observation. After the event ends, a forecast that still does not cover every day is incomplete, and a final total that is still missing two days later is not left pending.

A National Weather Service rain chance is on file for at least one of these markets. It is not a storm-total rainfall, so that column stays a dash.

How we grade

HRRR had the smallest stored rainfall miss, 0.746667 inches on average. Those rows are storm-total rain, not a forecast range, so there is no hit rate. A dash means that source or station has no stored rainfall total.