East Coast Nor'easter Final Scorecard, Oct 17-21, 2026

Outlook

The latest National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026, does not mention this low.

NWS Newport/Morehead City Coastal Flood Warning for Hatteras Island until 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday, October 20, with 2 to 4 feet of inundation. That office also has breaking waves of 8 to 15 feet on the Northern Outer Banks and 8 to 14 feet on Hatteras Island, and a Wind Advisory with gusts up to 55 mph on Hatteras Island, the Northern Outer Banks, and Ocracoke Island until 8:00 PM EDT Monday. East Carteret County is in a Wind Advisory with gusts up to 50 mph until noon EDT Monday. NWS Wakefield Coastal Flood Watch for Norfolk, Chesapeake, Suffolk, and Portsmouth from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, with 1 to 2 feet of inundation possible. Weather Prediction Center Extended Forecast Discussion, 4:00 PM EDT October 17, 2026: the forecast low sits slightly on the westward side of the guidance envelope, close to the ECMWF and the ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means. A model row stays pending until that model's sea-level pressure field has an enclosed low in the search area. Those positions are graded later against the analyzed low, which stays pending until a surface-analysis position is stored. The damage map keeps National Weather Service coastal-flood, high-wind, and marine reports for this stretch of coast.

Damage map

Invest AL93 model tracks

The National Hurricane Center has named this low Josephine. Josephine scorecard

These tracks come from the National Hurricane Center public model deck for Invest AL93, the low tied to this nor'easter. Each line is that model's latest stored cycle. GEFS members are the faint lines. Trajectory aids are left off. The dark line is the NHC best track.

Deck checked 2 PM ET Thu, Oct 29.

• GFS
• GEFS mean
• Canadian GEM
• UKMET
• HAFS-A
• HAFS-B
• HWRF
• HMON
• NAVGEM
• COAMPS-TC
• Canadian ensemble mean
• GEFS members

A dot is a stored fix. The line connects that model’s fixes in time order. Ensemble members are drawn faint and are not named one by one.

Final track miss

Track miss at 24, 48, and 72 hours is pending. A number is filled when the best track has a fix at that time and the National Hurricane Center official forecast is stored for the same issue and lead. Positions are not interpolated.

Final scorecard

Final storm reports: 6 coastal flood reports and 5 wind reports.

No analyzed low is stored, so no low-center or pressure miss is graded.

Official watches and warnings

No coastal flood warning or watch is on file yet. That list stays empty until a collect stores one.

Where the models place the low

Each row is one model’s low center at a forecast time. The place is the one-degree grid point where that model’s sea-level pressure is lowest inside the search area off the East Coast, and the pressure is that value. A minimum on the edge of the area stays pending, because the center may lie outside it. Google DeepMind, WeatherNext 3, and the analyzed low stay pending until a position is stored. This table does not estimate a center.

Sea-level pressure fields checked Oct 21, 9:25 AM ET.

• GFS
• ECMWF HRES
• ECMWF ENS mean
• ECMWF AIFS
• Canadian GEM
• ICON
• AI GFS

Each dot is a stored one-degree sea-level-pressure minimum. The line connects that model’s fixes in time order. The coastline is the map’s coast. A model with no stored fix is left off the map.

How we grade