South Texas Flash Flood Final Scorecard, Nov 7-9, 2026
South Texas flash flood (Nov 7-9, 2026) maps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports, and flash flood warnings are drawn on the damage map. 20 National Weather Service local storm reports are on file for flood and heavy rain. The largest rainfall total in the stored reports is 9 inches at 6 S Ben Bolt, TX. Reports were filed at these places: 1 SW Junction, TX; 16 N Kickapoo Cavern St, TX; 13 NE Loma Alta, TX; Kickapoo Cavern State P, TX; Devils River State Natu, TX; 16 NE Carta Valley, TX; Barksdale, TX; 8 N Premont, TX; 8 E Devil's Sinkhole St, TX; 1 N Rancho Viejo, TX; Kingsville, TX; 2 NE Kingsville, TX, and 7 more. 10 flash flood warnings are on file. No stored forecast rain total lines up with a complete observed total, so this page does not say which source came closest. A dash means that source or station has no stored rainfall total. The final scorecard grades the archived Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook for each date against the stored local storm reports. That score stays as it was written. The damage map keeps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports for south-central and south Texas, inside the stored search area. San Antonio, Austin, Corpus Christi, Victoria, Laredo, and Harlingen–Weslaco–Brownsville–McAllen are tracked markets in that area. Austin/San Antonio, Corpus Christi, and Brownsville are the National Weather Service offices for those airports. Houston, Waco, and Beaumont sit outside it. The dates run Saturday, November 7, through Monday, November 9. Saturday's Day 1 Marginal Risk covers parts of south, central, and west Texas, including the Edwards Plateau, so San Angelo and Odessa–Midland are inside the search area.
Wrap-up
Finished span: Nov 7-9, 2026. 20 flood and heavy-rain reports are on file. 10 flash flood warnings are on file. 16 of 16 stored reports fell inside the excessive-rainfall risk area, and none fell outside. Inside: 14 in a Slight Risk and 2 in a Marginal Risk. 4 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts. The grade uses the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook issued at 16 UTC on each event date. No forecast is stored next to an observation, so this page does not rank a source.
This event is over.
Final scorecard
16 of 16 stored reports fell inside the excessive-rainfall risk area, and none fell outside. Inside: 14 in a Slight Risk and 2 in a Marginal Risk. 4 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts. The grade uses the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook issued at 16 UTC on each event date.
November 7, 2026: no stored report fell during this outlook.
November 8, 2026: 14 of 14 reports were inside a risk area and none were outside (14 in a Slight Risk).
November 9, 2026: 2 of 2 reports were inside a risk area and none were outside (2 in a Marginal Risk).
The technical details
The grade uses the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued at 16 UTC for each event date, from the public archive shapefile named shp_94e_YYYYMMDD16.zip. The other Day 1 issuances that day are not used, so every date is graded on the same afternoon product. A report counts when its time is at or after 16 UTC and before 12 UTC the next day, which is the valid window written on the product. A report exactly at 12 UTC is not in the window. Reports between 12 UTC and 16 UTC are not graded, because this outlook was not valid yet. A report on the outline counts as inside. A point in more than one outline is counted once, in the higher risk: High, then Moderate, Slight, and Marginal. The check is the outline itself. A report just outside the line counts as outside. The stored local storm reports are the flood and heavy-rain reports already kept for this event. A day whose archive file could not be fetched has no score. A day that has been graded is not replaced on a later collect.
The methodology page is the full reference. How we grade says the same rule in plain English.
Nov 7, 2026 – Nov 9, 2026. The damage map keeps the local storm reports for this storm.
Observed rainfall
These are National Weather Service cooperative-observer totals for the 24 hours ending around 7am on the morning after each day of the event. A station that missed a morning is not filled in with zero.
- None
- Under 0.5 in
- 0.5–1 in
- 1–2 in
- 2–4 in
- Over 4 in
| Where this observed rainfall total was measured. | Observed rainfall for the event window, in inches. A missing day is not filled in with zero. | How many stored days are in this rainfall total. A station that missed a day is not counted as zero. |
|---|---|---|
| PORT MANSFIELD | 7.83 in | 2 |
| Laredo | 7.08 in | 3 |
| Whitsett | 5.56 in | 2 |
| PORT ISABEL | 5.38 in | 3 |
| KINGSVILLE | 5.09 in | 3 |
| Encinal 3NW | 4.88 in | 3 |
| CARRIZO SPRINGS | 4.86 in | 3 |
| Hunt 10W | 4.4 in | 3 |
| CAMP VERDE | 4.34 in | 2 |
| FRIO RIVER | 3.62 in | 3 |
| ARMSTRONG 4 SE | 3.22 in | 3 |
| S. LLANO RVR STATE PARK OUTSIDE | 3.13 in | 2 |
| SOUTH PADRE ISLAND | 3.11 in | 3 |
| BEEVILLE | 3 in | 2 |
| INGRAM | 3 in | 3 |
| SAN MIQUEL RIVER | 2.97 in | 3 |
| Sabinal | 2.92 in | 3 |
| ACKER RH | 2.84 in | 3 |
| WESLACO | 2.83 in | 3 |
| AT CHOKE CANYON DAM | 2.82 in | 3 |
| Harper | 2.75 in | 3 |
| BOERNE | 2.74 in | 3 |
| 0.7MI N. OF PO AT FORT MCKAVETT.TX | 2.7 in | 3 |
| SPEAKS | 2.67 in | 2 |
| Christoval 3Sw | 2.63 in | 2 |
| HARLINGEN | 2.56 in | 3 |
| EDEN | 2.55 in | 3 |
| NUECES R - LAKE CORPUS CHRISTI | 2.53 in | 3 |
| Freer | 2.35 in | 3 |
| ROCKPORT | 2.33 in | 3 |
| Fredericksburg - Teague Ranch | 2.3 in | 3 |
| ELDORADO | 2.29 in | 3 |
| SAN MANUEL | 2.12 in | 3 |
| COLETA CREEK DAM | 2.1 in | 3 |
| MCALLEN | 2.05 in | 3 |
| HALLETSVILLE 2N | 1.95 in | 3 |
| SAN ANGELO WFO | 1.95 in | 3 |
| GOLDTHWAITE | 1.94 in | 2 |
| TAYLOR RANCH | 1.91 in | 3 |
| VICTORIA | 1.85 in | 3 |
| SAN SABA 7 NW | 1.83 in | 2 |
| Tankersley 7Nw | 1.73 in | 2 |
| EDINBURG | 1.7 in | 3 |
| RAYMONDVILLE | 1.68 in | 3 |
| FALCON RESERVOIR NR FALCON HEIGHTS | 1.65 in | 2 |
| NEW BRAUNFELS WFO | 1.63 in | 3 |
| Fischer Store | 1.59 in | 3 |
| COPE RANCH CO-OP | 1.55 in | 3 |
| SANTA ANNA 12SSE | 1.52 in | 3 |
| MCCOOK | 1.5 in | 3 |
| DANEVANG | 1.46 in | 3 |
| Cuero | 1.42 in | 3 |
| PERSIMMON GAP CO-OP | 1.42 in | 3 |
| Fedor | 1.36 in | 3 |
| Fort Stockton 38SE | 1.22 in | 3 |
| BURNET | 1.21 in | 3 |
| RIO GRANDE AT RIO GRANDE CITY | 1.21 in | 3 |
| GLEN COVE | 1.2 in | 3 |
| MOUNT LOCKE CO-OP | 1.19 in | 3 |
| BROWN WOOD FIRE DEPT #2 35W OF PO BOX | 1.16 in | 3 |
| Coleman | 1.09 in | 3 |
| Coleman - Hords Creek Dam | 1.07 in | 3 |
| PANTHER JUNCTION CO-OP | 1.05 in | 3 |
| Canyon Dam | 1.04 in | 2 |
| EL CAMPO | 1.01 in | 3 |
| TAYLOR 1NW | 1 in | 3 |
| WATER VALLEY | 1 in | 1 |
| Austwell | 0.99 in | 3 |
| DIME BOX | 0.99 in | 3 |
| PLEASANTON #2 | 0.99 in | 3 |
| Austin - Great Hills | 0.98 in | 3 |
| LAJITAS CO-OP | 0.9 in | 2 |
| RIO GRANDE VILLAGE | 0.87 in | 3 |
| Welder Wild Life nears Woodsboro | 0.85 in | 1 |
| CASTOLON RANGER STATION CO-OP | 0.8 in | 3 |
| CITY WATER TREATMENT PLANT | 0.72 in | 3 |
| Guadalupe River 1 SSW Seguin | 0.6 in | 3 |
| KENT 8SE CO-OP | 0.54 in | 3 |
| VALENTINE 10WSW CO-OP | 0.46 in | 2 |
| Dripping Springs 6E | 0.45 in | 2 |
| WESTBURY | 0.42 in | 3 |
| Christoval 3SSW | 0.39 in | 1 |
| FALLS CITY 7 WSW | 0.31 in | 1 |
| WEST COLUMBIA 1 ESE | 0.31 in | 3 |
| Midland Intl Arpt | 0.25 in | 2 |
| CHISOS BASIN CO-OP | 0.23 in | 3 |
| LAKE PROCTOR | 0.13 in | 1 |
| Mertzon | 0.11 in | 1 |
| BRENHAM | 0.06 in | 3 |
| CHEAPSIDE | 0.06 in | 1 |
| BAY CITY WATERWORKS | 0.03 in | 2 |
| CRANE 2E CO-OP | 0.03 in | 3 |
| SITE 1 | 0 in | 3 |
Source: National Weather Service cooperative observers, via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet 7am precipitation product. Forecast Scoreboard is not affiliated with NWS, NOAA, or Iowa State University.
Map tiles © OpenStreetMap contributors. OpenStreetMap copyright.
Outlook
The damage map keeps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports for south-central and south Texas, inside the stored search area. San Antonio, Austin, Corpus Christi, Victoria, Laredo, and Harlingen–Weslaco–Brownsville–McAllen are tracked markets in that area. Austin/San Antonio, Corpus Christi, and Brownsville are the National Weather Service offices for those airports. Houston, Waco, and Beaumont sit outside it. The dates run Saturday, November 7, through Monday, November 9. Saturday's Day 1 Marginal Risk covers parts of south, central, and west Texas, including the Edwards Plateau, so San Angelo and Odessa–Midland are inside the search area. Sunday's Slight Risk covers south-central and south Texas, and Monday keeps a Marginal Risk on south Texas. The discussion says a Slight Risk upgrade is possible if the heavier totals cluster. The Storm Prediction Center Day 1 convective outlook is stored on this page when it names South Texas. Sunday's outlook is a Marginal Risk for a small part of South Texas, including the coast near Corpus Christi. Tornado, hail, and wind reports for that risk stay on the South Texas severe storms page. Flash flood warnings issued during these dates stay on the map after they expire. Model storm-total rainfall is the sum of daily precipitation from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. It is graded against the final observed total after the last day.
South Texas severe storms. Tornado, hail, and wind reports for Sunday's South Texas severe risk are on that page.
Stored excessive-rainfall discussion
Weather Prediction Center
The stored Weather Prediction Center excessive-rainfall discussion does not cover this event's dates, so this page does not quote it.
Model rain
Storm-total rainfall is the sum of daily precipitation from the forecast of record issued on or before Nov 7. A short-range model that does not cover every day is labeled with the days it has. Missing days are not filled in. The National Weather Service column is a rainfall total only when a quantitative precipitation forecast is stored. The grade is how far that total sits from the final observed total. It stays pending until the event has ended and every day has a final observation. After the event ends, a forecast that still does not cover every day is incomplete, and a final total that is still missing two days later is not left pending.
| A market whose climate site is inside the stored Southwest search area, or a west Texas market just east of that area. | Sum of stored daily GFS precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. Missing days are not filled in. | Sum of stored daily ECMWF IFS precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. Missing days are not filled in. | Sum of stored daily ECMWF AIFS precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. Missing days are not filled in. | Sum of stored daily Canadian GEM precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. Missing days are not filled in. | Sum of stored daily ICON precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. Missing days are not filled in. | Sum of stored daily NAM precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. NAM covers about one or two days, so a short total says how many days are stored. | Sum of stored daily HRRR precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. HRRR covers about one or two days, so a short total says how many days are stored. | National Weather Service storm-total rainfall, in inches, only when a quantitative precipitation forecast is stored. A rain chance is not shown as inches. | Sum of final daily precipitation from ACIS, in inches. Pending until every day of the event has a final observation. Two days after the event ends, a missing total says No final total. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin, TX | 1.84 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 0.72 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 1.02 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 0.73 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 0.99 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | — | 0.62 in, 1 of 3 days · Incomplete | — | 0.47 in |
| Corpus Christi | 1.53 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 2.39 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 1.66 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 0.08 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 0.18 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | — | 2.16 in, 1 of 3 days · Incomplete | — | 3.39 in |
| Harlingen–Weslaco–Brownsville–McAllen | 0.88 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 4.26 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 3.14 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 0.28 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 0.63 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | — | 0.96 in, 1 of 3 days · Incomplete | — | Pending |
| Laredo | 1.47 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 2.32 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 3.36 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 4.4 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 3.61 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | — | 2.21 in, 1 of 3 days · Incomplete | — | 2.43 in |
| Odessa–Midland | 0.27 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 0.39 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 0.27 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 0.19 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 0.51 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | — | 0.01 in, 1 of 3 days · Incomplete | — | 0.16 in |
| San Angelo | 0.71 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 0.58 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 0.92 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 1.29 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 1.61 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | — | 0.38 in, 1 of 3 days · Incomplete | — | 2.05 in |
| San Antonio | 3.3 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 1.68 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 1.81 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 2.09 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 2.56 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | — | 0.8 in, 1 of 3 days · Incomplete | — | 1.4 in |
| Victoria | 1.38 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 1.92 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 1.07 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 0.08 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | 0.67 in, 2 of 3 days · Incomplete | — | 0.06 in, 1 of 3 days · Incomplete | — | 1.68 in |
A National Weather Service rain chance is on file for at least one of these markets. It is not a storm-total rainfall, so that column stays a dash.
No stored forecast rain total lines up with a complete observed total, so this page does not say which source came closest. A dash means that source or station has no stored rainfall total.
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