West and Central Texas Flash Flood Outlook, Oct 29-30, 2026

Observed rainfall

No observed rainfall total is on file for this event yet.

Outlook

Weather Prediction Center excessive-rainfall discussion, 422 AM EDT October 28, 2026. Day 2, valid from 12Z October 29 through 12Z October 30: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS. The heaviest totals, 2 to 4 inches and locally higher, focus between the Stockton and Edwards Plateaus and the Midland area. A targeted Moderate Risk might not be out of the question for portions of the Stockton and Edwards Plateaus. A broader Marginal Risk covers much of the western half of Texas and includes southern New Mexico. Day 3, valid from 12Z October 30 through 12Z October 31, keeps a Marginal Risk for Texas and Oklahoma, including southern Kansas, and says a smaller Slight Risk may eventually be needed if Thursday's heavy rain is hit again. The damage map keeps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports for West and Central Texas and southern New Mexico, inside the stored search area, and draws flash flood warnings while they are active. The Weather Prediction Center excessive-rainfall discussion and the Storm Prediction Center convective outlook on this page are the latest stored products, replaced on each collect.

Damage map

Latest outlooks

Weather Prediction Center

Excessive rainfall discussion, 1141 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026.

Day 1 Valid 16Z Thu Oct 29 2026 - 12Z Fri Oct 30 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Texas & New Mexico... Confidence remains high in a heavy rainfall event this afternoon through tonight across portions of Texas and New Mexico as a mid- level disturbance previously associated with Vance moves into the region this afternoon and evening. Southeasterly low- level flow will prime the atmosphere ahead of the system, increasing PWATs to 1.5-2 inches across much of Texas, which is well above normal for this time of year. This translates to 1.5-1.75" for TX and 1-1.25" for southeast NM. Effective bulk shear is presently near 30 kts, which should organize convection. An upper level southern stream jet will lift across the southern Plains, placing Texas under the favorable right entrance region with enhanced upper level divergence. This will create large scale ascent across the region that should support widespread convection across Texas and southern New Mexico. MU CAPE is forecast to remain near 500-1000 J/kg across in and near portions of the Slight Risk area. The available ingredients support the concept of hourly rain amounts to 2", which could occur with cell mergers, cell training, or where a random mesocyclone occurs. A combination of the 12z REFS/HREF indicates that local totals of 5" are possible very near the TX/MX border. The highest event totals should focus on the southern side of the Slight Risk area where the highest moisture values are expected to pool and will likely produce a high-end Slight Risk scenario. The more widespread risk of flooding will come from the prolonged nature of this event, with moderate to locally heavy rain expected across much of West and Central Texas and into southeastern New Mexico through tonight and into Friday morning. Some of the eastern portion of the risk areas has minimal, if any, top soil, which would aid the flash flooding potential due to increased runoff. The risk areas from this issuance strongly resemble continuity.

Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 30 2026 - 12Z Sat Oct 31 2026 Deterministic and ensemble model guidance continues to show elevated rainfall totals along and south of the Mogollon Rim where there is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Available hi-res and global models forecast rainfall rates exceeding 3hr FFGs (1-2 inches) across central and southern Arizona on Friday afternoon and evening. Both the HREF and REFS show moderate probabilities (30-60%) of 6hr QPF exceeding 2 inches and precipitation exceeding FFGs. Given the sensitive terrain in the area and relatively moist soils across central and southern Arizona, this setup will likely produce scattered instances of flash flooding. A broader Marginal Risk area surrounds the Slight and includes portions of southern Utah and New Mexico where there will also be scattered convection, but the flash flood risk will be more isolated as rainfall rates are less likely to exceed FFGs. ...Texas and Oklahoma... Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall will continue into Friday morning across portions of Texas and Oklahoma as the remnants of TC Vance move northeast across the southern and central Plains. The southern stream jet should shift north, maintaining favorable conditions for convection over the area through Friday afternoon. Anomalous moisture will remain in place across the southern Plains, but cloud cover will once again limit instability. With favorable dynamics, there should still be enough support for locally heavy rainfall, but it will be tough to get rainfall rates that exceed hourly FFGs. The flood risk will mainly be a function of duration, with rainfall impacts compounding from Thursday into Friday. The highest risk of flash flooding will likely materialize over portions of Texas where the QPF footprints will have a bit of overlap from Thursday to Friday, but the highest rainfall totals on Friday should mainly be displaced to the northeast from the heaviest rainfall on Thursday. The flash flood risk will be relatively low, but enough for isolated instances of flash flooding and a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall.

Day 4 and Day 5 Valid 12Z Sun Nov 01 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 03 2026 A potentially high impact setup remains possible over the Southwest on Sunday. A deep longwave upper trough will be located over the West Coast early Sunday, while an anomalously far south southern stream shortwave tracks toward/into southern California/northern Mexico while carrying a surface low pressure system, with these features merging later Sunday. The combining features will bring strong forcing to the Southwest, including the right entrance region of the upper jet. Moisture-wise, IVT anomalies start to max out (for this time of year) in southern Arizona and vicinity Sunday per the NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness Tables, as strong and deep level Pacific moisture takes aim at the region. Widespread moisture and cloud cover may limit instability a bit, but at least a modest level of instability is forecast to develop, given the strong troughing aloft should steepen lapse rates. Soil moisture remains rather wet in most areas due to heavy rain over the past days and weeks, increasing the flooding threat hydrologically. All this, plus potential terrain enhancements to rainfall, yields what is considered a higher-end Slight Risk across the Southwest on Sunday. Moderate Risk level impacts are possible and this potential will continue to be monitored in future forecasts. A broader Marginal Risk expands west through southern California and east across much of New Mexico.

Storm Prediction Center

The latest Storm Prediction Center convective outlook is not stored yet.