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Days 1–5. Compared with the National Weather Service forecast from the same hour. No one pays for a rank.

Events

Southwest Flash Flood Final Scorecard, Oct 20-24, 2026

Southwest flash flood (Oct 20-24, 2026) maps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports, and flash flood warnings are drawn on the damage map. 147 National Weather Service local storm reports are on file for flood and heavy rain. The largest rainfall total in the stored reports is 6 inches at 5 W Hope, NM. Reports were filed at these places: 1 W Laguna Pueblo, NM; 10 SE Mesita, NM; 1 S Bernardo, NM; Bernardo, NM; 8 N Two Rivers Dam, NM; 1 E Bernardo, NM; 4 S Las Nutrias, NM; 6 N Agua Fria, NM; 7 W Belen, NM; 1 N Montezuma Creek, UT; 5 W Hope, NM; 4 N Edgewood, NM, and 125 more. No flash flood warning is on file yet. Stored model precipitation covers 14 of 14 tracked Southwest markets. The grade stays pending until the event has ended and each day has a final observation. The final scorecard grades the archived Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook for each date against the stored local storm reports. That score stays as it was written. The damage map keeps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports for Arizona, New Mexico, the Four Corners, southern California, and the other markets whose climate sites sit in the stored search area, plus west Texas when that market is just east of the area. Flash flood warnings are drawn while they are active. Model storm-total rainfall is the sum of daily precipitation from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. It is graded against the final observed total after the last day. Until then the grade stays pending.

Wrap-up

Finished span: Oct 20-24, 2026. 147 flood and heavy-rain reports are on file. No flash flood warning is on file. 112 of 120 stored reports fell inside the excessive-rainfall risk area, and 8 fell outside. Inside: 20 in a Moderate Risk, 66 in a Slight Risk, and 26 in a Marginal Risk. 18 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts. No forecast is stored next to an observation, so this page does not rank a source.

This event is over.

Final scorecard

112 of 120 stored reports fell inside the excessive-rainfall risk area, and 8 fell outside. Inside: 20 in a Moderate Risk, 66 in a Slight Risk, and 26 in a Marginal Risk. 18 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts.

October 20, 2026: 3 of 3 reports were inside a risk area and none were outside (3 in a Marginal Risk).

October 21, 2026: 34 of 34 reports were inside a risk area and none were outside (23 in a Slight Risk and 11 in a Marginal Risk).

October 22, 2026: 55 of 56 reports were inside a risk area and 1 was outside (20 in a Moderate Risk, 33 in a Slight Risk, and 2 in a Marginal Risk).

October 23, 2026: 6 of 12 reports were inside a risk area and 6 were outside (3 in a Slight Risk and 3 in a Marginal Risk).

October 24, 2026: 14 of 15 reports were inside a risk area and 1 was outside (7 in a Slight Risk and 7 in a Marginal Risk).

The technical details

The grade uses the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued at 16 UTC for each event date, from the public archive shapefile named shp_94e_YYYYMMDD16.zip. The other Day 1 issuances that day are not used, so every date is graded on the same afternoon product. A report counts when its time is at or after 16 UTC and before 12 UTC the next day, which is the valid window written on the product. A report exactly at 12 UTC is not in the window. Reports between 12 UTC and 16 UTC are not graded, because this outlook was not valid yet. A report on the outline counts as inside. A point in more than one outline is counted once, in the higher risk: High, then Moderate, Slight, and Marginal. The check is the outline itself. A report just outside the line counts as outside. The stored local storm reports are the flood and heavy-rain reports already kept for this event. A day whose archive file could not be fetched has no score. A day that has been graded is not replaced on a later collect.

The methodology page is the full reference. How we grade says the same rule in plain English.

Oct 20, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026. The damage map keeps the local storm reports for this storm.

Damage reports

Observed rainfall

These are National Weather Service cooperative-observer totals for the 24 hours ending around 7am on the morning after each day of the event. A station that missed a morning is not filled in with zero.

  • None
  • Under 0.5 in
  • 0.5–1 in
  • 1–2 in
  • 2–4 in
  • Over 4 in
Where this observed rainfall total was measured. Observed rainfall for the event window, in inches. A missing day is not filled in with zero. How many stored days are in this rainfall total. A station that missed a day is not counted as zero.
Monticello No. 2 5.41 in 5
BAYFIELD 7N 4.23 in 5
Grand Canyon East Entrance 3.83 in 5
Creede Water Treatment 3.79 in 5
DEL NORTE 3.61 in 5
MONTE VISTA 3.49 in 5
WAVERLY 1W 3.35 in 5
New Harmony 1SE 3.34 in 4
HOVENWEEP NATIONAL MONUMENT 3.27 in 5
WALNUT CANYON N.M. 3.26 in 5
Cortez 3.23 in 5
QURAY SPOTTER 3.01 in 5
MILFORD 2.98 in 5
Flagstaff 14N 2.87 in 5
DURANGO SPOTTER 2.82 in 5
GRENVILLE 20MI.SW 2.81 in 5
Telluride 2.81 in 5
Cuba - Johnson Ranch 2.76 in 5
NATURAL BRIDGES 2.73 in 5
NAVAJO DAM 2.57 in 5
CACHUMA LAKE 2.53 in 4
MESA VERDE NATIONAL PARK COOP NR 2.52 in 5
SUNRISE MOUNTAIN 2.5 in 4
Aztec Ruins Natl Mon 2.48 in 4
Capitol Reef Natl Park 2.47 in 5
TRINIDAD LAKE 2.47 in 5
Alcade Science Center 2.44 in 5
KIM 2.35 in 5
Ridgway 2.29 in 4
KIM 2.27 in 5
Ojai 2.25 in 3
Hans Flat RS 2.22 in 5
GALLUP SAND AND GRAVEL 2.01 in 5
Hatch 1.94 in 5
GRANT GROVE 1.93 in 5
Dove Creek - Northdale 1.86 in 4
EL MORRO NATL MON 1.75 in 5
MONTROSE #2 1.75 in 5
ARTESIA 6S CO-OP 1.74 in 5
Big Water 1.72 in 5
Brantley Dam near Carlsbad 1.63 in 5
Las Vegas - Sewage Plant 1.51 in 5
Fort Sumner - Sumner Lake 1.5 in 5
BLUE RIDGE R.S. 1.49 in 5
Blue Mesa Lake Coop 1.4 in 3
CEDAR CITY 1.36 in 5
CABLE TV 1.33 in 5
LAS ANIMAS 1.29 in 5
PRESCOTT 1.27 in 5
MINA 1.26 in 5
LAVERKIN COOP 1.21 in 5
LA JUNTA 1.2 in 5
ASH MOUNTAIN 1.18 in 5
FOOTE MINERAL CO 1.13 in 2
HENSHAW DAM 1.12 in 5
CAPROCK 1.1 in 5
MONTEZUMA CASTLE NM 1.09 in 3
MATIONAL MONUMENT 1.07 in 5
Rocky Ford 2SE 1.06 in 5
SONORA 1.05 in 5
Rosebud 7Nw 1.03 in 5
ORDWAY 1.01 in 5
HERON DAM NEAR TIERRA AMARILLA 1 in 3
RUIDOSO 1 in 5
WUPATKI NM 0.92 in 2
MOUNTAINAIR 8NW 0.9 in 5
PASO ROBLES 0.88 in 5
NMSU AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE CTR 0.85 in 5
Texline 0.84 in 5
RIO GRANDE/SANDIA MTNS-BEAR CANYON 0.82 in 5
CANYONLAND-THE NECK 0.8 in 5
Sargents 0.8 in 3
Santa Fe Seton 0.78 in 5
Painted Desert Np 0.76 in 5
SAINT GEORGE 0.75 in 5
Burbank Valley Pump Plant 0.74 in 5
NORTH FORK RANGER STN 0.72 in 3
LORAINE 5 NNE 0.65 in 4
NEWKIRK 24N-CANADIAN RIVER 0.65 in 5
Grand Canyon Visitors Center 0.64 in 4
LEMON COVE 0.63 in 5
IRVINE RANCH 0.6 in 2
EXCHEQUER DAM 0.59 in 4
Sonora - New Melones 0.58 in 5
Tuolumne Meadows 0.58 in 5
LINDSAY 0.57 in 5
Pasadena - San Gabriel Fire 0.56 in 5
Sutter Hill 0.55 in 2
WASCO 0.55 in 5
HANFORD 1 S 0.53 in 5
LOS LUNAS AG SCIENCE CENTER 0.53 in 5
Safford Agricultural Center 0.52 in 4
San Gabriel Canyon Ph 0.52 in 5
PUEBLO RSVR COOP 0.51 in 4
GLENNVILLE 0.5 in 4
Fort Thomas 2 SW 0.46 in 5
PEDERNAL 0.46 in 4
San Andreas 0.44 in 5
Jerome 0.43 in 5
HIKO 0.41 in 5
Los Angeles Downtown/FHM 0.41 in 5
BUNKERVILLE 0.4 in 4
Joseph City 6W - Jack Rabbit 0.4 in 5
N.AMERICAN CHEMICAL CORP. MAIN PLANT 0.4 in 5
San Carlos Reservoir 0.4 in 5
RIO RANCHO #2 0.39 in 5
STATE UNIVERSITY 0.38 in 5
SUNSET CRATER NATL MON 0.37 in 2
CANYONLANDS-THE NEEDLES 0.31 in 3
Palm Springs 6W - Long Valley 2 0.3 in 2
COALINGA 0.29 in 5
RIO RANCHO #1 0.29 in 5
Willcox 0.29 in 5
LOA 0.28 in 2
Apache Junction - Stewart Mountain 0.26 in 2
BORIARTY 0.26 in 4
Bisbee Tunnel 0.26 in 5
Nogales 6 N 0.26 in 5
CANON CITY 0.24 in 5
GLOBE #3 0.24 in 5
Bernalillo - Jemez Dam 0.23 in 3
JORNADA EXPL RANGE 0.23 in 5
Silver City 3N 0.19 in 5
Bagdad 0.18 in 5
ZION NATIONAL PARK 0.18 in 1
FOUNTAIN HILLS 0.16 in 2
Mormon Flat 0.14 in 3
Mt. Lemmon Willow Canyon 0.14 in 5
Paradise 0.12 in 5
VISALIA 0.12 in 3
OVERTON POWER CO 0.11 in 5
Benson 6 SE 0.1 in 4
CHERAW 0.09 in 4
VALLEY OF FIRE S.P. 0.06 in 5
Saguaro National Park 0.05 in 4
Bartlett Dam 0.04 in 1
Mountain Mesa - South Lake Fire 0.04 in 3
BAKERSFIELD 5 NW 0.03 in 4
FRESNO 5 NE 0.02 in 3
Catalina State Park 0.01 in 5
Coronado National Memorial 0.01 in 5
Ajo 0 in 5
Arvin 0 in 1
BULHEAD CITY FIRE DEPT 0 in 5
Boulder City - Alan Bible Visitor Center 0 in 5
CASA GRANDE NATL MONUMT 0 in 5
CHAMA. UPPER COLORADOO NTWK 0 in 1
CHIRIACO SUMMIT 0 in 5
CITIZENT UTILITY 0 in 5
DAM 0 in 2
EL CENTRO 2 SSW 0 in 4
Green Valley 0 in 5
HAYFIELD PUMPING PLANT 0 in 4
HWY DEPT YARD 0 in 5
JOSHUA TREE 0 in 5
KETTLEMAN CITY 0 in 1
Kartchner Caverns 0 in 5
LAUGHLIN 0 in 5
LEE VINING 0 in 2
LOS BANOS 0 in 3
Pearce - Sunsites 0 in 3
RACHEL 0 in 4
RANGER STATION 0 in 1
Sasabe 0 in 5
Sierra Vista 0 in 5
TACNA 3 NE 0 in 4
Tohono Chul 0 in 5
Tombstone 0 in 4
WIKIEUP 0 in 4
YUCCA MESA 0 in 1

Source: National Weather Service cooperative observers, via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet 7am precipitation product. Forecast Scoreboard is not affiliated with NWS, NOAA, or Iowa State University.

Map tiles © OpenStreetMap contributors. OpenStreetMap copyright.

Outlook

The damage map keeps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports for Arizona, New Mexico, the Four Corners, southern California, and the other markets whose climate sites sit in the stored search area, plus west Texas when that market is just east of the area. Flash flood warnings are drawn while they are active. Model storm-total rainfall is the sum of daily precipitation from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. It is graded against the final observed total after the last day. Until then the grade stays pending.

Southwest severe storms. Tornado, hail, and wind reports for this same region are on that page.

Damage map

Model rain

Storm-total rainfall is the sum of daily precipitation from the forecast of record issued on or before Oct 20. A short-range model that does not cover every day is labeled with the days it has. Missing days are not filled in. The National Weather Service column is a rainfall total only when a quantitative precipitation forecast is stored. The grade is how far that total sits from the final observed total, and it stays pending until the event has ended and every day has a final observation.

A market whose climate site is inside the stored Southwest search area, or a west Texas market just east of that area. Sum of stored daily GFS precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. Missing days are not filled in. Sum of stored daily ECMWF IFS precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. Missing days are not filled in. Sum of stored daily ECMWF AIFS precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. Missing days are not filled in. Sum of stored daily Canadian GEM precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. Missing days are not filled in. Sum of stored daily ICON precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. Missing days are not filled in. Sum of stored daily NAM precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. NAM covers about one or two days, so a short total says how many days are stored. Sum of stored daily HRRR precipitation, in inches, from the forecast of record issued on or before the first day. HRRR covers about one or two days, so a short total says how many days are stored. National Weather Service storm-total rainfall, in inches, only when a quantitative precipitation forecast is stored. A rain chance is not shown as inches. Sum of final daily precipitation from ACIS, in inches. Pending until every day of the event has a final observation.
Albuquerque–Santa Fe 0.83 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.25 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.84 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 1.42 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.46 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending — 0.22 in
Bakersfield 0.42 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.3 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.72 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.19 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.21 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.02 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending 0.91 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending — 0.61 in
El Paso (Las Cruces) 0.89 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.33 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.56 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.13 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.63 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending — 0.84 in
Fresno–Visalia 0.26 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.45 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.86 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.76 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.93 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.35 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending 0.93 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending — 0.21 in
Las Vegas 0.02 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 1.35 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.46 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.14 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.45 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending — 0 in
Los Angeles 1.05 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.59 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 1.09 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.64 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.42 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.07 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending 0.6 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending — 0.39 in
Odessa–Midland 0 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.01 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending — 0 in
Palm Springs 0.03 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.08 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.15 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.14 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.01 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending — 0.1 in
Phoenix (Prescott) 0.39 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.6 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 1.5 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 1.28 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 1.04 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.09 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending 0.03 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending — 0 in
San Angelo 0 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending — 0 in
San Diego 0.46 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.37 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.56 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.54 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.81 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.08 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending 0.14 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending — 0.5 in
Santa Barbara–Santa Maria–San Luis Obispo 0.98 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 1.47 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 1.37 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 1.16 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 1.45 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.92 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending 2.11 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending — 1.01 in
Tucson (Sierra Vista) 0.65 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.2 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.47 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.28 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending — 0 in
Yuma–El Centro 0 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0.06 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 4 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending 0 in, 1 of 5 days · Pending — 0 in

A National Weather Service rain chance is on file for at least one of these markets. It is not a storm-total rainfall, so that column stays blank.

How we grade