Forecast Scoreboard Forecast
Scoreboard

Days 1–5. Compared with the National Weather Service forecast from the same hour. No one pays for a rank.

Events

Southwest Severe Storms Final Scorecard, Oct 21-23, 2026

Southwest severe storms (Oct 21-23, 2026) maps National Weather Service tornado, hail, and wind reports inside the stored search area. 152 National Weather Service local storm reports are on file for tornado, hail, and wind. Stored counts: 6 tornado, 84 hail, 52 wind, 10 wind damage. Reports were filed at these places: 3 SW Santa Fe, NM; 1 SW Santa Fe, NM; 3 E Agua Fria, NM; 2 SW Agua Fria, NM; 26 SW Three Rivers, NM; 9 W Tularosa, NM; 2 N Boles Acres, NM; 22 W Holloman Afb, NM; 5 NE Smokey Bear Histor, NM; 25 N Organ, NM; 18 N White Sands, NM; 3 NE Alto, NM, and 120 more. The final scorecard grades the archived Day 1 severe outlook for each date against the stored local storm reports. That score stays as it was written. The damage map keeps National Weather Service tornado, hail, and wind reports for Arizona, New Mexico, the Four Corners, and southern and central California, inside the stored search area. The dates run through Friday, October 23, so Thursday's Slight Risk in Arizona and western New Mexico and Friday's Marginal Risk in New Mexico stay on this page. Flood and heavy-rain reports for this region stay on the Southwest flash flood page.

Wrap-up

Finished span: Oct 21-23, 2026. 152 tornado, hail, and wind reports are on file. No warning is on file. 72 of 105 stored reports fell inside the severe-outlook risk area, and none fell outside. Inside: 12 in an Enhanced Risk, 50 in a Slight Risk, and 10 in a Marginal Risk. 33 were inside the general thunder outline only, which is not a Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, or High risk. 45 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts. No forecast is stored next to an observation, so this page does not rank a source.

This event is over.

Final scorecard

72 of 105 stored reports fell inside the severe-outlook risk area, and none fell outside. Inside: 12 in an Enhanced Risk, 50 in a Slight Risk, and 10 in a Marginal Risk. 33 were inside the general thunder outline only, which is not a Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, or High risk. 45 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts.

October 21, 2026: 39 of 70 reports were inside a risk area and none were outside (12 in an Enhanced Risk, 24 in a Slight Risk, and 3 in a Marginal Risk). 31 were in general thunder only.

October 22, 2026: 28 of 30 reports were inside a risk area and none were outside (21 in a Slight Risk and 7 in a Marginal Risk). 2 were in general thunder only.

October 23, 2026: 5 of 5 reports were inside a risk area and none were outside (5 in a Slight Risk).

The technical details

The grade uses the Storm Prediction Center Day 1 categorical outlook issued at 1630 UTC for each event date, from the public archive GeoJSON named day1otlk_YYYYMMDD_1630_cat.lyr.geojson. Later updates at 2000 UTC and 0100 UTC are not used, and neither are the 0600 UTC or 1300 UTC issuances. One issuance keeps every date on the same product. A report counts when its time is at or after that issuance and before 12 UTC the next day, which is the valid window written on the product. A report exactly at 12 UTC is not in the window. Reports between 12 UTC and 1630 UTC are not graded, because this outlook was not valid yet. A report on the outline counts as inside. A point in more than one outline is counted once, in the higher risk: High, then Moderate, Enhanced, Slight, and Marginal. General thunder is the categorical thunder outline. It is not a Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, or High risk, so it is not part of the inside count. The check is the outline itself. A report just outside the line counts as outside. This is not the Storm Prediction Center neighborhood that treats a nearby report as inside. The stored local storm reports are the ones already kept for this event. A day whose archive file could not be fetched has no score. A day that has been graded is not replaced on a later collect.

The methodology page is the full reference. How we grade says the same rule in plain English.

Oct 21, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026. The damage map keeps the local storm reports for this storm.

Damage reports · Arizona and Southwest recap

Outlook

The damage map keeps National Weather Service tornado, hail, and wind reports for Arizona, New Mexico, the Four Corners, and southern and central California, inside the stored search area. The dates run through Friday, October 23, so Thursday's Slight Risk in Arizona and western New Mexico and Friday's Marginal Risk in New Mexico stay on this page. Flood and heavy-rain reports for this region stay on the Southwest flash flood page.

Southwest flash flood. Flood and heavy-rain reports for this same region are on that page.

Damage map