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Days 1–5. Compared with the National Weather Service forecast from the same hour. No one pays for a rank.

Hurricane tracks

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Model Accuracy: GFS vs GEFS mean vs Canadian GEM

Final advisory

NHC issued its final advisory at 8:00 AM ET Fri, Sep 26; Gabrielle is now a post-tropical cyclone.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle has 45 positions on the best track, which is where the storm actually went, from the operational NHC file. 4 official forecast tracks are drawn. At 48 hours, the average track miss is 61 miles across 38 forecasts. At 48 hours, the official wind forecast averaged 78 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 80 mph. Stored model tracks on these forecast tracks: GFS, GEFS mean, Canadian GEM, UKMET, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, HMON, NAVGEM.

AL072025 · 2025 · Sep 17-28, 2025. Score table. Damage reports.

How to read this. The solid line is where the storm went. A dashed line is where the official forecast said it would go. A smaller path miss is closer. Distances are statute miles. Wind speeds are miles per hour.

The technical details

Path miss on this page is the great-circle distance in statute miles, the same miles as the home card and the score table. The Earth radius is 3,958.7613 miles. The file also keeps that distance in nautical miles. One nautical mile is 1,852 meters, about 1.15 statute miles. A case counts when that forecast and the best track (BEST, lead 0) share the same valid time. Positions are not interpolated. A model track counts even when that cycle has no official forecast yet. Skill against the official forecast (OFCL) still requires the official forecast from the same issue time and lead.

Shown leads are 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 hours, once a paired fix exists. Sample size is the number of paired cases at that lead. Overall rank still uses 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours. The 96-hour lead is drawn when the deck has a paired fix, and it is not in that rank.

Wind on this page is miles per hour. The file stores maximum wind in knots. One knot is about 1.15 miles per hour. An advisory wind is rounded to the nearest 5 mph. A mean on this page is rounded to the nearest mile per hour. Wind miss is the absolute difference on the paired cases. There is no confidence interval on this map. The daily board’s interval is a 95% percentile bootstrap.

Overall rank is the average of the path rank and the wind rank on this storm. Each rank uses the graded leads at 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours, and each of those leads counts once, however many forecasts it holds. A lower miss is the better rank. A tie shares the average of the places those forecasts occupy. A source is ranked only with at least 3 graded forecasts for path and 3 for wind. Fewer than that says Not enough forecasts yet. A source with no graded path, or no graded wind, is left out of both ranks, and overall shows —.

The best track is the operational NHC b-deck. It is preliminary and revised after the season. HURDAT2 is not loaded. Model lines come from the public a-deck for the same forecast tracks, and only when that file stores them. Google DeepMind is the Weather Lab operational ensemble mean. WeatherNext 3 is that model’s ensemble mean from the same download. ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, and the ECMWF ENS mean are tropical-cyclone tracks from ECMWF open data. The ECMWF ENS mean is the average of the member centers in the IFS ensemble track file. AI GFS is NOAA’s AIGFS tracker when that file is still posted. The methodology page names the aids that are scored.

The methodology page is the full reference. How we grade says the same rules in plain English.

The best track is the operational NHC b-deck. It is preliminary and is revised after the season. The post-season HURDAT2 track is not loaded.

This score uses the archived NHC b-deck and a-deck for this storm. The post-season HURDAT2 file is not loaded.

Google DeepMind, WeatherNext 3, ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, ECMWF ENS mean, AI GFS: No graded forecasts yet.

Overall rank

Overall averages each forecast's rank on path and on wind strength. See the separate scores below.

Place on this list. 1 was closest to the weather that happened. A tie shares this number, and the next place skips ahead. Early read until the longer day count, then proven. The forecast source this row scores. Path and wind ranksOverall averages each forecast's rank on path and on wind strength. See the separate scores below. Track rankPlace on path miss. 1 was closest. On one storm this is that place. Across storms it is the average of those places. Each graded lead counts once. A tie shares the average place. Intensity rankPlace on wind miss. 1 was closest. On one storm this is that place. Across storms it is the average of those places. Each graded lead counts once. A tie shares the average place.
1 NHC official 1.5 2 1
2 HMON 2.5 1 4
3 HAFS-A 4.5 7 2
4 GFS 5 4 6
4 HWRF 5 5 5
6 GEFS mean 5.5 3 8
6 HAFS-B 5.5 8 3
8 NAVGEM 6.5 6 7
9 Canadian GEM 9.5 10 9
9 UKMET 9.5 9 10

How we grade

Track and intensity by model

Each row is one source at one lead that has already verified, including 12, 24, 36, and 48 hours. The count is how many forecasts shared a time with where the storm went. Path miss is statute miles. Wind miss is miles per hour. The rank number is that source's place in the table above, and it still uses 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours.

Place on this list. 1 was closest to the weather that happened. A tie shares this number, and the next place skips ahead. Early read until the longer day count, then proven. The forecast source this row scores. LeadHow many hours ahead this forecast was made. Scored leads are 24, 48, 72, and 120. The technical name is lead. CasesHow many past forecasts went into this average. A forecast counts only when the best track has a fix at that exact time. The technical name is cases. Track errorAverage how far the predicted storm path was from where it actually went, in miles. Lower is better. The technical name is track error. Track skillHow that path miss compares with the official hurricane forecast. Positive means better than the official forecast. Negative means worse. The technical name is track skill. Intensity errorAverage how far off the predicted wind speed was, in miles per hour. The file stores knots. Lower is better. The technical name is intensity error. Intensity skillHow that wind miss compares with the official hurricane forecast. Positive means better. Negative means worse. The technical name is intensity skill.
1 NHC official 12 h 38 28 mi — 5 mph —
1 NHC official 24 h 38 38 mi — 9 mph —
1 NHC official 36 h 38 47 mi — 12 mph —
1 NHC official 48 h 38 61 mi — 12 mph —
1 NHC official 60 h 37 80 mi — 13 mph —
1 NHC official 72 h 35 100 mi — 12 mph —
1 NHC official 96 h 31 176 mi — 13 mph —
1 NHC official 120 h 27 280 mi — 16 mph —
2 HMON 12 h 34 33 mi Behind the official forecast by 19% 9 mph Behind the official forecast by 89%
2 HMON 24 h 36 38 mi Beats the official forecast by 3% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 31%
2 HMON 36 h 38 49 mi Beats the official forecast by 5% 15 mph Behind the official forecast by 21%
2 HMON 48 h 40 70 mi Behind the official forecast by 4% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 11%
2 HMON 60 h 38 90 mi Behind the official forecast by 4% 16 mph Behind the official forecast by 31%
2 HMON 72 h 36 102 mi Beats the official forecast by 10% 16 mph Behind the official forecast by 27%
2 HMON 96 h 29 154 mi Beats the official forecast by 25% 20 mph Behind the official forecast by 40%
2 HMON 120 h 25 244 mi Beats the official forecast by 17% 21 mph Behind the official forecast by 7%
3 HAFS-A 12 h 34 32 mi Behind the official forecast by 15% 10 mph Behind the official forecast by 114%
3 HAFS-A 24 h 36 43 mi Behind the official forecast by 5% 12 mph Behind the official forecast by 19%
3 HAFS-A 36 h 38 64 mi Behind the official forecast by 27% 14 mph Behind the official forecast by 16%
3 HAFS-A 48 h 40 88 mi Behind the official forecast by 32% 16 mph Behind the official forecast by 43%
3 HAFS-A 60 h 40 115 mi Behind the official forecast by 39% 16 mph Behind the official forecast by 23%
3 HAFS-A 72 h 40 142 mi Behind the official forecast by 41% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 9%
3 HAFS-A 96 h 37 213 mi Behind the official forecast by 28% 17 mph Behind the official forecast by 22%
3 HAFS-A 120 h 33 347 mi Behind the official forecast by 34% 24 mph Behind the official forecast by 47%
4 GFS 12 h 37 31 mi Behind the official forecast by 7% 15 mph Behind the official forecast by 203%
4 GFS 24 h 39 48 mi Behind the official forecast by 11% 17 mph Behind the official forecast by 85%
4 GFS 36 h 41 66 mi Behind the official forecast by 10% 16 mph Behind the official forecast by 45%
4 GFS 48 h 43 82 mi Beats the official forecast by 6% 16 mph Behind the official forecast by 50%
4 GFS 60 h 44 99 mi Beats the official forecast by 7% 16 mph Behind the official forecast by 38%
4 GFS 72 h 42 116 mi Beats the official forecast by 9% 17 mph Behind the official forecast by 49%
4 GFS 96 h 38 196 mi Beats the official forecast by 1% 22 mph Behind the official forecast by 73%
4 GFS 120 h 34 366 mi Behind the official forecast by 32% 26 mph Behind the official forecast by 61%
4 HWRF 12 h 34 34 mi Behind the official forecast by 20% 8 mph Behind the official forecast by 71%
4 HWRF 24 h 36 49 mi Behind the official forecast by 17% 16 mph Behind the official forecast by 73%
4 HWRF 36 h 38 65 mi Behind the official forecast by 22% 16 mph Behind the official forecast by 38%
4 HWRF 48 h 40 88 mi Behind the official forecast by 17% 17 mph Behind the official forecast by 53%
4 HWRF 60 h 41 119 mi Behind the official forecast by 29% 15 mph Behind the official forecast by 28%
4 HWRF 72 h 41 155 mi Behind the official forecast by 39% 16 mph Behind the official forecast by 44%
4 HWRF 96 h 38 222 mi Behind the official forecast by 22% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 1%
4 HWRF 120 h 34 363 mi Behind the official forecast by 40% 21 mph Behind the official forecast by 20%
6 HAFS-B 12 h 34 30 mi Behind the official forecast by 9% 11 mph Behind the official forecast by 132%
6 HAFS-B 24 h 36 47 mi Behind the official forecast by 16% 11 mph Behind the official forecast by 14%
6 HAFS-B 36 h 38 68 mi Behind the official forecast by 37% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 5%
6 HAFS-B 48 h 40 93 mi Behind the official forecast by 39% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 14%
6 HAFS-B 60 h 40 114 mi Behind the official forecast by 45% 16 mph Behind the official forecast by 22%
6 HAFS-B 72 h 40 147 mi Behind the official forecast by 47% 13 mph Behind the official forecast by 12%
6 HAFS-B 96 h 37 223 mi Behind the official forecast by 36% 20 mph Behind the official forecast by 47%
6 HAFS-B 120 h 33 372 mi Behind the official forecast by 47% 28 mph Behind the official forecast by 63%
6 GEFS mean 12 h 37 31 mi Behind the official forecast by 10% 21 mph Behind the official forecast by 328%
6 GEFS mean 24 h 39 47 mi Behind the official forecast by 13% 24 mph Behind the official forecast by 162%
6 GEFS mean 36 h 41 66 mi Behind the official forecast by 20% 24 mph Behind the official forecast by 113%
6 GEFS mean 48 h 43 88 mi Behind the official forecast by 17% 23 mph Behind the official forecast by 117%
6 GEFS mean 60 h 44 108 mi Behind the official forecast by 12% 23 mph Behind the official forecast by 102%
6 GEFS mean 72 h 42 133 mi Behind the official forecast by 16% 25 mph Behind the official forecast by 119%
6 GEFS mean 96 h 38 191 mi Beats the official forecast by 2% 28 mph Behind the official forecast by 130%
6 GEFS mean 120 h 34 288 mi Beats the official forecast by 1% 31 mph Behind the official forecast by 97%
8 NAVGEM 12 h 33 38 mi Behind the official forecast by 34% 29 mph Behind the official forecast by 507%
8 NAVGEM 24 h 35 47 mi Behind the official forecast by 35% 27 mph Behind the official forecast by 229%
8 NAVGEM 36 h 37 57 mi Behind the official forecast by 30% 26 mph Behind the official forecast by 147%
8 NAVGEM 48 h 39 71 mi Behind the official forecast by 19% 25 mph Behind the official forecast by 118%
8 NAVGEM 60 h 40 95 mi Behind the official forecast by 22% 24 mph Behind the official forecast by 94%
8 NAVGEM 72 h 38 129 mi Behind the official forecast by 29% 24 mph Behind the official forecast by 107%
8 NAVGEM 96 h 35 223 mi Behind the official forecast by 25% 24 mph Behind the official forecast by 97%
8 NAVGEM 120 h 33 354 mi Behind the official forecast by 33% 22 mph Behind the official forecast by 63%
9 UKMET 12 h 18 28 mi Behind the official forecast by 26% 35 mph Behind the official forecast by 703%
9 UKMET 24 h 18 40 mi Behind the official forecast by 22% 39 mph Behind the official forecast by 321%
9 UKMET 36 h 18 56 mi Behind the official forecast by 30% 41 mph Behind the official forecast by 223%
9 UKMET 48 h 19 83 mi Behind the official forecast by 37% 44 mph Behind the official forecast by 224%
9 UKMET 60 h 20 113 mi Behind the official forecast by 44% 41 mph Behind the official forecast by 193%
9 UKMET 72 h 19 162 mi Behind the official forecast by 75% 40 mph Behind the official forecast by 214%
9 UKMET 96 h 17 245 mi Behind the official forecast by 51% 49 mph Behind the official forecast by 196%
9 UKMET 120 h 15 359 mi Behind the official forecast by 38% 48 mph Behind the official forecast by 109%
9 Canadian GEM 12 h 18 38 mi Behind the official forecast by 74% 31 mph Behind the official forecast by 545%
9 Canadian GEM 24 h 19 65 mi Behind the official forecast by 100% 31 mph Behind the official forecast by 234%
9 Canadian GEM 36 h 20 90 mi Behind the official forecast by 116% 31 mph Behind the official forecast by 169%
9 Canadian GEM 48 h 21 121 mi Behind the official forecast by 103% 29 mph Behind the official forecast by 171%
9 Canadian GEM 60 h 22 139 mi Behind the official forecast by 81% 26 mph Behind the official forecast by 127%
9 Canadian GEM 72 h 21 165 mi Behind the official forecast by 78% 27 mph Behind the official forecast by 141%
9 Canadian GEM 96 h 19 229 mi Behind the official forecast by 37% 28 mph Behind the official forecast by 141%
9 Canadian GEM 120 h 17 311 mi Behind the official forecast by 15% 29 mph Behind the official forecast by 106%

How we grade

Google DeepMind, WeatherNext 3, ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, ECMWF ENS mean, AI GFS: No graded forecasts yet.

Track map

The solid line is the best track. Dashed lines are official forecast tracks from a few advisories, from the issue position out through the leads stored in that advisory. Thinner lines are model tracks from NHC’s public a-deck for those same advisories, and only when that file actually contains them. Google DeepMind and WeatherNext 3 are ensemble-mean tracks from Weather Lab, drawn on those same advisories. ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, and the ECMWF ENS mean are open-data cyclone tracks, drawn the same way. AI GFS is NOAA’s AIGFS tracker, drawn when that file is still posted.

7°N 29°N 51°N 73°N 74°W 48°W 22°W 3°E
Map of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle. The best track, where the storm actually went, has 45 positions. 4 official forecast tracks are drawn. Model lines: GFS, GEFS mean, Canadian GEM, UKMET, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, HMON, NAVGEM. Latitude and longitude, scaled by the cosine of the mid-latitude so a degree of longitude is not stretched.
  • Actual track (45 positions)
  • NHC official Sep 17, 06:00 UTC
  • NHC official Sep 20, 06:00 UTC
  • NHC official Sep 23, 12:00 UTC
  • NHC official Sep 26, 12:00 UTC
  • GFS
  • GEFS mean
  • Canadian GEM
  • UKMET
  • HAFS-A
  • HAFS-B
  • HWRF
  • HMON
  • NAVGEM

The chart measures how far the track was off in statute miles, the same miles as the home card. It includes 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 hours when a paired fix exists. The overall rank uses 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours. Positions are not interpolated.

How far the track was off

28 mi 12 h 38 mi 24 h 47 mi 36 h 61 mi 48 h 80 mi 60 h 100 mi 72 h 176 mi 96 h 280 mi 120 h
Average official track miss in miles by how far ahead. 12 hours 28 miles over 38 forecasts. 24 hours 38 miles over 38 forecasts. 36 hours 47 miles over 38 forecasts. 48 hours 61 miles over 38 forecasts. 60 hours 80 miles over 37 forecasts. 72 hours 100 miles over 35 forecasts. 96 hours 176 miles over 31 forecasts. 120 hours 280 miles over 27 forecasts.
LeadHow many hours ahead this forecast was made. This map shows 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 when a paired fix exists. Overall rank uses 24, 48, 72, and 120. The technical name is lead. CasesHow many past forecasts went into this average. A forecast counts only when the best track has a fix at that exact time. The technical name is cases. Track errorAverage how far the predicted storm path was from where it actually went, in statute miles. Lower is better. The technical name is track error. Intensity errorAverage how far off the predicted wind speed was, in miles per hour, on this page. Lower is better. The file stores knots. The technical name is intensity error. Forecast max windAverage top wind in the official forecast, in miles per hour, on the paired cases. The file stores knots. The technical name is forecast maximum wind. Best-track windAverage top wind where the storm actually went, in miles per hour, at the same times. The file stores knots. The technical name is best-track wind.
12 h 38 28 mi 5 mph 81 mph 79 mph
24 h 38 38 mi 9 mph 82 mph 80 mph
36 h 38 47 mi 12 mph 80 mph 80 mph
48 h 38 61 mi 12 mph 78 mph 80 mph
60 h 37 80 mi 13 mph 75 mph 80 mph
72 h 35 100 mi 12 mph 74 mph 81 mph
96 h 31 176 mi 13 mph 75 mph 84 mph
120 h 27 280 mi 16 mph 72 mph 86 mph

Miles are statute miles. Wind is miles per hour. The National Hurricane Center file stores wind in knots. One knot is about 1.15 miles per hour. Nautical miles are in the technical details.

How we grade

Top wind

12 h 24 h 36 h 48 h 60 h 72 h 96 h 120 h
Top wind, official forecast versus where the storm went. At 12 hours the forecast averaged 81 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 79 mph. At 24 hours the forecast averaged 82 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 80 mph. At 36 hours the forecast averaged 80 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 80 mph. At 48 hours the forecast averaged 78 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 80 mph. At 60 hours the forecast averaged 75 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 80 mph. At 72 hours the forecast averaged 74 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 81 mph. At 96 hours the forecast averaged 75 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 84 mph. At 120 hours the forecast averaged 72 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 86 mph.
  • Official forecast maximum wind
  • Best-track maximum wind

Source: National Hurricane Center / NOAA. The operational b-deck and the public a-deck are U.S. government works in the public domain. Google DeepMind and WeatherNext 3 ensemble means are experimental forecasts from Google DeepMind Weather Lab. Forecasts older than 48 hours are used under CC BY 4.0. ECMWF AIFS, ECMWF HRES, and ECMWF ENS tracks are ECMWF open data, used under CC BY 4.0. AI GFS tracks are a NOAA AIGFS product. Forecast Scoreboard is not affiliated with NHC, NOAA, Google, or ECMWF.