Upper Mississippi Valley Severe Storms Final Scorecard, Oct 28, 2026
Upper Mississippi Valley severe storms (Oct 28, 2026) maps National Weather Service tornado, hail, and wind reports inside the stored search area. 18 National Weather Service local storm reports are on file for tornado, hail, and wind. Stored counts: 1 tornado, 12 hail, 1 wind, 4 wind damage. Reports were filed at these places: 1 NE Cable, WI; 3 SE Danbury, WI; 3 W Miesville, MN; 3 NW Miesville, MN; New Trier, MN; 1 S Hampton, MN; 2 S Hampton, MN; 2 E Pease, MN; 4 W Hinckley, MN; 5 SW Gilman, MN; 2 E Sauk Rapids, MN; Mora, MN, and 4 more. The final scorecard grades the archived Day 1 severe outlook for each date against the stored local storm reports. That score stays as it was written. Storm Prediction Center Day 1 convective outlook, 1226 AM CDT October 28, 2026, valid 281200Z through 291200Z: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A few severe thunderstorms are possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday with some tornado potential. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will also be possible. The damage map keeps National Weather Service tornado, hail, and wind reports for east-central Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, inside the stored search area.
Wrap-up
Finished span: Oct 28, 2026. 18 tornado, hail, and wind reports are on file. No warning is on file. 18 of 18 stored reports fell inside the severe-outlook risk area, and none fell outside. Inside: 9 in a Slight Risk and 9 in a Marginal Risk. No forecast is stored next to an observation, so this page does not rank a source.
This event is over.
Final scorecard
18 of 18 stored reports fell inside the severe-outlook risk area, and none fell outside. Inside: 9 in a Slight Risk and 9 in a Marginal Risk.
October 28, 2026: 18 of 18 reports were inside a risk area and none were outside (9 in a Slight Risk and 9 in a Marginal Risk).
The technical details
The grade uses the Storm Prediction Center Day 1 categorical outlook issued at 1630 UTC for each event date, from the public archive GeoJSON named day1otlk_YYYYMMDD_1630_cat.lyr.geojson. Later updates at 2000 UTC and 0100 UTC are not used, and neither are the 0600 UTC or 1300 UTC issuances. One issuance keeps every date on the same product. A report counts when its time is at or after that issuance and before 12 UTC the next day, which is the valid window written on the product. A report exactly at 12 UTC is not in the window. Reports between 12 UTC and 1630 UTC are not graded, because this outlook was not valid yet. A report on the outline counts as inside. A point in more than one outline is counted once, in the higher risk: High, then Moderate, Enhanced, Slight, and Marginal. General thunder is the categorical thunder outline. It is not a Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, or High risk, so it is not part of the inside count. The check is the outline itself. A report just outside the line counts as outside. This is not the Storm Prediction Center neighborhood that treats a nearby report as inside. The stored local storm reports are the ones already kept for this event. A day whose archive file could not be fetched has no score. A day that has been graded is not replaced on a later collect.
The methodology page is the full reference. How we grade says the same rule in plain English.
Oct 28, 2026. The damage map keeps the local storm reports for this storm.
Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Day 1 convective outlook, 1226 AM CDT October 28, 2026, valid 281200Z through 291200Z: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A few severe thunderstorms are possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday with some tornado potential. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will also be possible. The damage map keeps National Weather Service tornado, hail, and wind reports for east-central Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, inside the stored search area.
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