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Days 1–5. Compared with the National Weather Service forecast from the same hour. No one pays for a rank.

Events

Oklahoma Flash Flood Final Scorecard, Oct 14-15, 2026

Oklahoma flash flood (Oct 14-15, 2026) maps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports, and flash flood warnings are drawn on the damage map. 23 National Weather Service local storm reports are on file for flood and heavy rain. Reports were filed at these places: 1 S Norman, OK; 1 W Norman, OK; Lawton, OK; 6 SSW Paducah, TX; Paducah, TX; 4.5 E Oklahoma City, OK; Elk City, OK; 1 NE Edmond, OK; Watonga, OK; Hydro, OK; 3 SSW Moore, OK; 1 SSE Omega, OK, and 9 more. No flash flood warning is on file yet. No model rainfall forecast is stored next to an observed total for this flood, so the page does not publish a model-versus-observed score. The final scorecard grades the archived Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook for each date against the stored local storm reports. That score stays as it was written. Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook, valid from 12Z October 14 through 12Z October 15, 2026: a Moderate Risk from southwestern Oklahoma and the Red River basin through central Oklahoma and the Tulsa metro, added in coordination with the Norman forecast office. NWS Norman Flood Watch until 1:00 PM CDT Thursday, October 15, for much of Oklahoma and the Red River counties of northern Texas. NWS Tulsa Flood Watch for the Tulsa area through that same time. The damage map keeps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports, and draws flash flood warnings while they are active. Reports keep updating through Thursday.

Wrap-up

Finished span: Oct 14-15, 2026. 23 flood and heavy-rain reports are on file. No flash flood warning is on file. 6 of 6 stored reports fell inside the excessive-rainfall risk area, and none fell outside. Inside: 5 in a Moderate Risk and 1 in a Slight Risk. 17 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts. No forecast is stored next to an observation, so this page does not rank a source.

This event is over.

Final scorecard

6 of 6 stored reports fell inside the excessive-rainfall risk area, and none fell outside. Inside: 5 in a Moderate Risk and 1 in a Slight Risk. 17 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts.

October 14, 2026: 6 of 6 reports were inside a risk area and none were outside (5 in a Moderate Risk and 1 in a Slight Risk).

October 15, 2026: no stored report fell during this outlook.

The technical details

The grade uses the Weather Prediction Center Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued at 16 UTC for each event date, from the public archive shapefile named shp_94e_YYYYMMDD16.zip. The other Day 1 issuances that day are not used, so every date is graded on the same afternoon product. A report counts when its time is at or after 16 UTC and before 12 UTC the next day, which is the valid window written on the product. A report exactly at 12 UTC is not in the window. Reports between 12 UTC and 16 UTC are not graded, because this outlook was not valid yet. A report on the outline counts as inside. A point in more than one outline is counted once, in the higher risk: High, then Moderate, Slight, and Marginal. The check is the outline itself. A report just outside the line counts as outside. The stored local storm reports are the flood and heavy-rain reports already kept for this event. A day whose archive file could not be fetched has no score. A day that has been graded is not replaced on a later collect.

The methodology page is the full reference. How we grade says the same rule in plain English.

Oct 14, 2026 – Oct 15, 2026. The damage map keeps the local storm reports for this storm.

Damage reports

Observed rainfall

These are National Weather Service cooperative-observer totals for the 24 hours ending around 7am on the morning after each day of the event. A station that missed a morning is not filled in with zero.

  • None
  • Under 0.5 in
  • 0.5–1 in
  • 1–2 in
  • 2–4 in
  • Over 4 in
Where this observed rainfall total was measured. Observed rainfall for the event window, in inches. A missing day is not filled in with zero. How many stored days are in this rainfall total. A station that missed a day is not counted as zero.
CROWELL 9.09 in 2
VERNON 6.43 in 2
PADUCAH 6.29 in 2
MARLOW 6.09 in 2
GUTHRIE 5.96 in 2
Truscott 3W 5.88 in 2
DUNCAN 5.38 in 2
SEMINOLE 5.34 in 2
Sterling 6S 5.24 in 2
GEARY 5.19 in 2
Bridgeport 2ESE 5 in 2
Noble 4.98 in 2
SEYMOUR 4.83 in 2
Norman 4.8 in 2
Paducah 10S 4.8 in 2
OKLAHOMA CITY 4.78 in 2
PADUCAH 15S 4.59 in 2
CHATTANOOGA 4.37 in 2
SEYMOUR 16NNE 4.37 in 2
CHICKASHA 4.28 in 2
PRAGUE 4.28 in 2
Dumont 4.22 in 2
KINGFISHER 4.15 in 2
ELMORE CITY 3.93 in 2
CRESCENT 3.88 in 2
SHAWNEE 3.78 in 2
RETROP 3.64 in 2
APACHE 3.48 in 2
SCOTLAND 3.48 in 2
WILLOW 3.33 in 2
MORAVIA 2NNE 3.32 in 2
WICHITA MTN WILDLIFE REFUGE 3.32 in 2
ROOSEVELT 3.31 in 2
STROUD 2.9 in 2
MULHALL 2.81 in 2
HEALDTON 2.78 in 2
PERKINS 2.74 in 2
RALSTON 2.7 in 2
Floydada 9Se 2.65 in 1
VINSON 2.5 in 2
Northfield 2S 2.42 in 2
CROSBYTON 2.39 in 2
WEATHERFORD 2.3 in 2
MATADOR 2.22 in 2
SAYRE 1NE 2.19 in 2
STILLWATER 2.19 in 2
CENTRAL FIRE STN 2.18 in 2
SPAVINAW 2.07 in 2
HARDY 2.04 in 2
RADIO STN KCRC 2.03 in 2
MARSHALL 1.92 in 2
ROARING SPRINGS 1.74 in 2
BILLINGS 1.71 in 2
ARDMORE 1.6 in 2
MUSKOGEE 1.52 in 2
ERICK 1.49 in 2
CHILDRSS CO-OP SITE 1.45 in 2
AMES 1.4 in 2
BLACKWELL 1.39 in 2
NEWKIRK 1.38 in 2
Lubbock 9N 1.18 in 2
LAMONT 1.16 in 2
CENTRAHOMA 1.15 in 2
Childress 7Nw 1.15 in 2
LUBBOCK 5WSW 1.13 in 2
REESE 4E 1.11 in 2
PONTOTOC 1N 1.1 in 2
Cheyenne 1.06 in 2
LAHOMA 1.02 in 2
MEDFORD 1.02 in 2
MEDFORD 7SSW 0.93 in 2
ORIENTA 0.84 in 2
ALVA 0.79 in 2
LEEDEY 0.79 in 2
ANDERSON 3W 0.78 in 2
COLEMAN 0.78 in 2
LUBBOCK-7SW 0.73 in 2
DAISY 0.7 in 2
FLOYDADA 0.69 in 2
WAYNOKA 0.69 in 2
HELENA 0.67 in 2
MCGEE CREEK DAM 0.61 in 2
SHALLOWATER 0.56 in 2
ADRIAN 0.5 in 2
WOODWARD 0.47 in 2
ANTLERS 0.46 in 2
Flomot 2E 0.45 in 1
MADILL 0.45 in 2
Allison 4SW - Hemphill SE 0.41 in 2
GAINESVILLE 0.41 in 2
LEHIGH 0.41 in 2
MEMPHIS 0.39 in 2
Dalhart 2SE 0.34 in 2
FARGO 0.3 in 2
GRUVER 0.3 in 2
Pampa 3E 0.3 in 2
HIGGINS 0.21 in 2
ABERNATHY 0.2 in 2
ARNETT 0.2 in 2
BOGG SPRINGS 0.2 in 2
GREAT SALT PLAINS DAM 0.18 in 2
CLARENDON 0.17 in 1
RADIO STATION KGRO 0.17 in 2
GLAZIER 0.16 in 2
SANFORD DAM 0.15 in 2
Amarillo 10SE - Randall 10SE 0.14 in 1
FOLLETT 0.1 in 2
USDA-ARS 0.1 in 2
SILVERTON 0.04 in 2
TULIA 0.03 in 2
VIGO PARK 0.03 in 2
LEVELLAND 0.02 in 2
MULESHOE 0.02 in 2
DOWNTOWN 0.01 in 2
MORTON 0.01 in 2
AVERY 5NNW 0 in 2
BATTIEST 0 in 2
DIMMITT 0 in 2
FRIONA 0 in 2
HART 0 in 2
IDABEL 0 in 2
LITTLEFIELD 0 in 2
MULESHOE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE CO-OP 0 in 2
OLTON 0 in 1
RADIO KVOP 0 in 1
Water Treatment Plant 0 in 2

Source: National Weather Service cooperative observers, via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet 7am precipitation product. Forecast Scoreboard is not affiliated with NWS, NOAA, or Iowa State University.

Map tiles © OpenStreetMap contributors. OpenStreetMap copyright.

Outlook

Weather Prediction Center Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook, valid from 12Z October 14 through 12Z October 15, 2026: a Moderate Risk from southwestern Oklahoma and the Red River basin through central Oklahoma and the Tulsa metro, added in coordination with the Norman forecast office. NWS Norman Flood Watch until 1:00 PM CDT Thursday, October 15, for much of Oklahoma and the Red River counties of northern Texas. NWS Tulsa Flood Watch for the Tulsa area through that same time. The damage map keeps National Weather Service flood and heavy-rain reports, and draws flash flood warnings while they are active. Reports keep updating through Thursday.

Damage map