Weekly Forecast Scorecard: Oct 19-25, 2026

This note covers climate days October 19 through October 25, 2026. A next-day high is the day-1 forecast of record, paired with a final observation at the same airport. October 25 has a final high at 7 airports, so the temperature averages stop on October 24.

Next-day highs this week

Among the models, ICON had the smallest average miss, 1.9°F, across 1,248 market-days. The National Weather Service was closer still, at 1.6°F on those same 1,248 market-days. HRRR was 2.0°F on 1,224 market-days. GFS was 2.2°F on the same 1,248 market-days as ICON.

Biggest busts

A bust is the largest miss on one airport's next-day high. The forecast minus the final observation:

• ICON at Duluth–Superior on October 23 forecast 67.9°F. The high was 49°F, so the forecast was 18.9°F too warm.
• ECMWF AIFS at Albuquerque–Santa Fe on October 22 forecast 61.4°F. The high was 80°F, so the forecast was 18.6°F too cold.
• GFS at Duluth–Superior on October 23 forecast 67.4°F. The high was 49°F, so the forecast was 18.4°F too warm.

Biggest wins

A win is a next-day high that was closer than the National Weather Service forecast for the same airport and the same day.

• ICON at Medford–Klamath Falls on October 22 forecast 57.7°F. The high was 57°F, a miss of 0.7°F. The National Weather Service forecast was 70°F, a miss of 13°F. ICON was 12.3°F closer.
• ECMWF AIFS at Medford–Klamath Falls on October 22 forecast 55.2°F. The high was 57°F, a miss of 1.8°F. The National Weather Service forecast was 70°F, a miss of 13°F. ECMWF AIFS was 11.2°F closer.
• ECMWF AIFS at Bend, OR on October 22 forecast 52°F. The high was 51°F, a miss of 1°F. The National Weather Service forecast was 63°F, a miss of 12°F. ECMWF AIFS was 11°F closer. The same margin was at Yakima–Pasco–Richland–Kennewick that day: ECMWF AIFS forecast 57°F, the high was 57°F, and the National Weather Service forecast was 68°F.

Model of the week

On this week's next-day highs, ICON was the closest model. The next-day skill score blends the high, the low, and the rain chance against the National Weather Service. That score ranks ICON first. ICON and HRRR both read 12% behind the National Weather Service. That is a different list from the longer board.

On the next-day board, HRRR still leads, with an average miss on highs of 2.6°F across 206 markets and 205 days. It is 18% behind the National Weather Service. NAM and ECMWF IFS are next on highs, both at 2.9°F. ICON is not on that board. Its longest market record is 27 days, short of the 90 days a rank needs.

On the 2026 hurricane season board, WeatherNext 3 has the best overall rank, 2.62. Google DeepMind is second, at 2.86. WeatherNext 3's path miss is 20 miles at 24 hours (679 forecasts), 32 miles at 48 hours (561), 49 miles at 72 hours (457), and 92 miles at 120 hours (275). Among sources with more than one forecast, that is the smallest path miss at each of those leads.

Vance

Vance is the Eastern Pacific storm of October 18–26. The best track, where the storm actually went, has 31 positions and a peak wind of 100 kt. The archived b-deck calls it a hurricane at 06:00 UTC on October 23, at 70 kt, and a tropical storm again at 18:00 UTC on October 25, at 60 kt. The latest fix, 06:00 UTC on October 26, is 55 kt at 15.2°N, 104.9°W. The stored advisory at 5:00 AM ET on October 26 calls it a tropical storm, maximum winds 65 mph, pressure 995 mb, about 260 mi SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

At 48 hours, the official forecast is off by 45 miles across 12 forecasts. At that same lead the official wind forecast averaged 107 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 89 mph. On this storm, GFS has the best overall rank, 2, from 36 graded path forecasts and 36 graded wind forecasts. At 48 hours the score table has the official forecast at 45 miles on 12 forecasts. AI GFS is 33 miles on 2 forecasts.

Josephine

Josephine ran October 18–22. The best track, where the storm actually went, has 17 positions, from 31.0°N, 71.4°W at 18:00 UTC on October 18 to 39.5°N, 66.8°W at 18:00 UTC on October 22. The peak wind is 55 kt. The archived b-deck labels the latest fix a subtropical storm. Fixes from 18:00 UTC on October 18 through 12:00 UTC on October 21 are post-tropical. The 18:00 UTC fix on October 21 is a subtropical storm.

The official forecast at 12 hours is 18 miles on 3 forecasts. The track chart shows that same 18 miles. The wind miss was 5 kt. The official wind forecast at that lead averaged 69 mph, and where the storm actually went averaged 63 mph. No source has an overall rank. A rank needs at least 3 graded forecasts for path and 3 for wind at 24, 48, 72, or 120 hours. At 48 hours, HAFS-B has the smallest miss among models with at least two forecasts, 32 miles on 4 forecasts.

Olana

Olana is the Central Pacific storm of October 24–26. The best track, where the storm actually went, has 9 positions and a peak wind of 35 kt. The archived b-deck labels the latest fix a tropical storm. The stored advisory at 5:00 AM ET on October 26 calls it a tropical storm, maximum winds 40 mph, pressure 1002 mb, about 490 mi WSW of Johnston Island.

The official forecast at 12 hours is 39 miles on 2 forecasts. The track chart shows that same 39 miles. The official wind forecast at that lead averaged 44 mph, and where the storm actually went averaged 40 mph. No source has an overall rank. At 12 hours, HAFS-A is 13 miles on 2 forecasts.

Southwest severe storms

The Southwest severe storms page runs October 21–23. The damage map has 150 tornado, hail, and wind reports: 4 tornado, 84 hail, 52 wind gust, and 10 damage. The largest hail reports are 3 inches, at 5 SW Rio Rico, Arizona, and at 5 N Page Springs, Arizona. The report at 5 S Heber-Overgaard, Arizona notes an EF-1 tornado and one injury.

Southwest flash flood

The Southwest flash flood runs October 20–24. The damage map has 138 flood and heavy-rain reports. No flash flood warning is on file.

Southern High Plains severe storms

The Southern High Plains severe storms page runs October 24–25. The damage map has 28 tornado, hail, and wind reports: 2 tornado, 16 hail, 9 wind gust, and 1 damage. The largest hail report is 1.75 inches at 4 S Fort Bliss, Texas. The strongest wind gust on file is 75 mph at 25 N Organ, New Mexico.

High Plains flash flood

The High Plains flash flood runs October 24–25. The damage map has 29 flood and heavy-rain reports. No flash flood warning is on file.

Southeast Florida

The Southeast Florida flash flood is October 25. No flood or heavy-rain report is on file, and no flash flood warning is on file.

East Coast nor'easter

The East Coast nor'easter runs October 17–21. The damage map has 11 local storm reports and 7 coastal alerts. Seven model low-center fixes are stored for October 21 at 12:00 UTC. The deepest is GFS at 992 mb, at 37°N, 70°W. The analyzed low is still pending.