Weekly Forecast Scorecard: Nov 2-8, 2026

This note covers climate days November 2 through November 8, 2026. A next-day high is the day-1 forecast of record, paired with a final observation at the same airport. November 8 has a final high at 82 markets, so the temperature averages stop on November 7.

Next-day highs this week

Among the models, ICON had the smallest average miss, 2.5°F, across 1,241 market-days. The National Weather Service was closer still, at 2.1°F on those same 1,241 market-days. HRRR was 2.7°F on 1,217 market-days. GFS was 2.7°F on the same 1,241 market-days as ICON.

Biggest busts

A bust is the largest miss on one airport's next-day high. The forecast minus the final observation:

• Canadian GEM at Palm Springs on November 6 forecast 67.2°F. The high was 85°F, so the forecast was 17.8°F too cold.
• Canadian GEM at Palm Springs on November 7 forecast 70.8°F. The high was 87°F, so the forecast was 16.2°F too cold.
• Canadian GEM at Palm Springs on November 4 forecast 66.5°F. The high was 82°F, so the forecast was 15.5°F too cold.

Biggest wins

A win is a next-day high that was closer than the National Weather Service forecast for the same airport and the same day.

• ICON at Missoula on November 7 forecast 58.2°F. The high was 61°F, a miss of 2.8°F. The National Weather Service forecast was 47°F, a miss of 14°F. ICON was 11.2°F closer.
• HRRR at Missoula on November 7 forecast 58°F. The high was 61°F, a miss of 3°F. The National Weather Service forecast was 47°F, a miss of 14°F. HRRR was 11°F closer.
• NAM at Omaha on November 3 forecast 66.1°F. The high was 68°F, a miss of 1.9°F. The National Weather Service forecast was 57°F, a miss of 11°F. NAM was 9.1°F closer.

Model of the week

On this week's next-day highs, ICON was the closest model. That is a different list from the longer board. The next-day skill score blends the high, the low, and the rain chance against the National Weather Service. That score ranks HRRR first. HRRR reads 9% ahead of the National Weather Service. ICON reads 8% ahead.

On the next-day board, HRRR still leads, with an average miss on highs of 2.6°F across 206 markets and 220 days. It is 17% behind the National Weather Service. ECMWF IFS is next on highs, at 2.9°F. NAM is at 3.0°F. ICON is not on that board. Its longest market record is 41 days, short of the 90 days a rank needs. Canadian GEM's longest market record is 41 days as well.

On the 2026 hurricane season board, WeatherNext 3 and the ECMWF ENS mean tie for the best overall rank, both at 2.5. Google DeepMind is next, at 3.03. WeatherNext 3's path miss is 20 miles at 24 hours (704 forecasts), 32 miles at 48 hours (579), 49 miles at 72 hours (471), and 94 miles at 120 hours (289). On that board, among sources with more than one forecast, that is the smallest path miss at each of those leads.

Southern and Central Plains severe storms

The Southern and Central Plains severe storms page runs November 1 through November 3. The damage map has 60 tornado, hail, and wind reports: 5 tornado, 6 hail, 37 wind gust, and 12 damage. The largest hail report is 1.25 inches at 4 W Norman, Oklahoma. The report at 7 W Keachi, Louisiana says an EF-0 tornado, with peak winds of 75 mph and a peak width of 150 yards. The strongest wind gust is 66 mph at 8 W Northern Meadows, New Mexico.

The frozen Day 1 severe-outlook grade counted 56 reports in the outlook window. 35 of those 56 fell inside the risk area: 3 in an Enhanced Risk, 19 in a Slight Risk, and 13 in a Marginal Risk. None fell outside. 21 were inside the general thunder outline only, which is not a Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, or High risk. 2 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts. On November 2, 25 of 46 reports were inside a risk area: 3 in an Enhanced Risk, 15 in a Slight Risk, and 7 in a Marginal Risk, and 21 were in general thunder only. On November 3, 3 of 3 were inside a Marginal Risk.

East Florida coast flash flood

The East Florida coast flash flood runs November 2–4. The damage map has 17 flood reports and 22 flash flood warnings. The report at Sawgrass Mills Mal, Florida notes at least a dozen stalled vehicles in high water around the mall. The report at 2 E Coconut Creek, Florida notes multiple vehicles stalled near Powerline Road and Copans Road in Pompano Beach, and at least 7 vehicles required towing.

The frozen Day 1 excessive-rainfall grade counted 7 reports in the outlook window. All 7 fell inside the risk area: 6 in a Slight Risk and 1 in a Marginal Risk. November 2 had 5 of 5 in a Slight Risk. November 3 had 1 of 1 in a Slight Risk. November 4 had 1 of 1 in a Marginal Risk. 10 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts.

Eastern Kansas, western Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma heavy rain

The Eastern Kansas, western Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma heavy rain page runs November 2–3. No flood or heavy-rain report is on file, and no flash flood warning is on file. The frozen Day 1 excessive-rainfall grade has no inside count. No stored report fell during that outlook on November 2 or November 3.

Mid-South flash flood

The Mid-South flash flood runs November 3–4. The damage map has 29 flood reports. No flash flood warning is on file. The report at 1 E Mccaysville-Copperh, Georgia notes significant inundation of homes along East Tennessee Avenue, with water 4 feet or higher in and around homes.

The frozen Day 1 excessive-rainfall grade counted 10 reports in the outlook window. All 10 fell inside a Marginal Risk. November 3 had no stored report during that outlook. November 4 had 10 of 10 inside a Marginal Risk.

Southeast and Tennessee Valley severe storms

The Southeast and Tennessee Valley severe storms page is November 4. The damage map has 7 tornado, hail, and wind reports: 2 wind gust and 5 damage. No tornado or hail report is on file. The strongest wind gust is 56 mph at 3 SE Wears Valley, Tennessee. The damage report at Cades Cove, Tennessee notes the Cades Cove Loop Road was temporarily closed that morning because of downed trees.

The frozen Day 1 severe-outlook grade has no inside count. No stored report fell during that outlook's valid window. 7 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts.

Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic severe storms

The Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic severe storms page is November 6. No tornado, hail, or wind report is on file. The frozen Day 1 severe-outlook grade has no inside count. No stored report fell during that outlook's valid window. The stored Day 1 outlook, issued at 1:44 PM CST on November 6, is a Slight Risk for parts of the central and eastern Carolinas and the coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.

East Coast and southeastern New England heavy rain

The East Coast and southeastern New England heavy rain page is November 6. The damage map has 44 flood reports and 4 flash flood warnings. The report at 1 SW Wareham, Massachusetts notes Briarwood Drive was flooded and impassable.

The frozen Day 1 excessive-rainfall grade counted 34 reports in the outlook window. All 34 fell inside the risk area: 27 in a Slight Risk and 7 in a Marginal Risk. 10 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts.

South Texas flash flood

The South Texas flash flood covered November 7–9. The damage map has 20 flood reports and 10 flash flood warnings. The report at 13 NE Loma Alta, Texas notes a water rescue along CR 450. The report at Devils River State Natu, Texas notes flooding across Dolan Creek Road, which is barricaded and closed. The largest stored rainfall total is 9 inches at 6 S Ben Bolt, Texas. The final scorecard grades the archived Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook.

The frozen Day 1 excessive-rainfall grade counted 16 reports in the outlook window. All 16 fell inside the risk area: 14 in a Slight Risk and 2 in a Marginal Risk. 4 other stored reports were not inside a graded valid time, so they are not in those counts.

The Day 1 excessive-rainfall outlook issued at 2:55 AM EST on November 9 was a Slight Risk from southwest of Corpus Christi toward Brownsville. The Marginal Risk ran farther north, into south-central Texas and the Hill Country west of I-35. San Antonio, Austin, and Corpus Christi link this event from their market scorecards.

South Texas severe storms

The South Texas severe storms page is the Sunday companion, November 8. No tornado, hail, or wind report verified for this storm. The final scorecard has no inside count. No stored report fell during that outlook's valid window. The Day 1 outlook, issued at 10:14 AM CST on November 8, was a Marginal Risk along the middle and lower Texas coast. Corpus Christi links this page from its market scorecard.

Pena

Pena is the Central Pacific storm of November 2–9. The best track, where the storm actually went, has 29 positions and a peak wind of 50 kt. The archived b-deck calls it a tropical disturbance at 12:00 UTC on November 2, at 20 kt, at 7.7°N, 129.8°W, and a tropical storm at 18:00 UTC on November 6, at 40 kt, at 11.2°N, 149.6°W, pressure 1002 mb. The peak, 50 kt, is the 00:00 UTC fix on November 8, at 11.5°N, 154.2°W, pressure 996 mb. The latest fix, 12:00 UTC on November 9, is a tropical storm at 35 kt, at 11.4°N, 159.1°W, pressure 1004 mb. The stored advisory at 4:00 AM ET on November 9 calls it a tropical storm, maximum winds 45 mph, pressure 1002 mb, about 830 mi ESE of Johnston Island.

The official forecast at 12 hours is 20 miles on 10 forecasts. The official wind forecast at that lead averaged 54 mph, and where the storm actually went averaged 48 mph. At 48 hours, the official forecast is off by 70 miles across 4 forecasts. At that same lead the official wind forecast averaged 66 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 45 mph. On this storm, HAFS-A and WeatherNext 3 tie for the best overall rank, 2.5, from 12 graded path forecasts and 12 graded wind forecasts. At 48 hours, Google DeepMind has the smallest miss among models with at least two forecasts, 34 miles on 4 forecasts. The official forecast at that lead is 70 miles on 4 forecasts.