Weekly Forecast Scorecard: Oct 13-19, 2026

This note covers climate days October 13 through October 19, 2026. A next-day high is the day-1 forecast of record, paired with a final observation at the same airport. October 19 has no final high on file yet, so the temperature averages stop on October 18.

Next-day highs this week

Among the models, ICON and GFS had the smallest average miss, 2.5°F, across 1,248 market-days. The National Weather Service was closer still, at 2.3°F on those same 1,248 market-days. HRRR was 2.7°F on 1,224 market-days.

Biggest busts

A bust is the largest miss on one airport's next-day high. The forecast minus the final observation:

• Canadian GEM at Lincoln–Hastings–Kearney on October 13 forecast 82.5°F. The high was 59°F, so the forecast was 23.5°F too warm.
• NAM at Palm Springs on October 17 forecast 64.6°F. The high was 85°F, so the forecast was 20.4°F too cold.
• Canadian GEM at Richmond–Petersburg on October 17 forecast 79.2°F. The high was 59°F, so the forecast was 20.2°F too warm.

Biggest wins

A win is a next-day high that was closer than the National Weather Service forecast for the same airport and the same day.

• ECMWF IFS at Raleigh–Durham on October 17 forecast 71.5°F. The high was 72°F, a miss of 0.5°F. The National Weather Service forecast was 55°F, a miss of 17°F. ECMWF IFS was 16.5°F closer.
• NAM at Greenville–New Bern–Washington on October 17 forecast 73.7°F. The high was 73°F. The National Weather Service forecast was 57°F. NAM was 15.3°F closer.
• NAM at Evansville on October 16 forecast 74.1°F. The high was 76°F. The National Weather Service forecast was 59°F. NAM was 15.1°F closer.

Model of the week

On this week's next-day highs, ICON and GFS were the closest models. That is a different list from the longer board.

On the next-day board, HRRR still leads, with an average miss on highs of 2.6°F across 206 markets and about 199 days. It is 19% behind the National Weather Service. ECMWF IFS and NAM are next, both at 2.9°F.

On the 2026 hurricane season board, AI GFS has the best overall rank, 1.5, from 13 forecasts at 24 hours and 5 at 48 hours. WeatherNext 3 is second overall, at 2.69. WeatherNext 3 has the smallest path miss at every scored lead: 20 miles at 24 hours (662 forecasts), 32 miles at 48 hours (549), 48 miles at 72 hours (449), and 92 miles at 120 hours (275).

East Coast nor'easter

The East Coast nor'easter runs October 17–21. The damage map has 10 local storm reports and 17 coastal alerts. Twenty-nine model low-center fixes are stored. The deepest is AI GFS at 994 mb for October 21 at 12:00 UTC, at 36°N, 70°W. ECMWF HRES, ECMWF AIFS, and UKMET are at 997 mb for that same time. Google DeepMind, WeatherNext 3, and the analyzed low are still pending.

Trudy

Trudy is the Eastern Pacific storm of October 11–20. The best track, where the storm actually went, has 36 positions. At 48 hours, the official forecast is off by 58 miles across 19 forecasts. At that same lead the official wind forecast averaged 107 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 87 mph. On this storm, AI GFS has the best overall rank from a short record (5 forecasts at 24 hours and 1 at 48 hours). WeatherNext 3 is second. At 48 hours its path miss is 44 miles across 19 forecasts, against 58 miles for the official forecast.

Oklahoma and West Texas floods

The Oklahoma flash flood of October 14–15 has 23 flood and heavy-rain reports on its damage map. No flash flood warning is on file, and no model rainfall forecast is stored next to an observed total.

The West Texas flash flood of October 15–16 has 5 flood and heavy-rain reports on its damage map. No flash flood warning is on file, and no model rainfall score is stored.