Weekly Forecast Scorecard: Oct 26-Nov 1, 2026

This note covers climate days October 26 through November 1, 2026. A next-day high is the day-1 forecast of record, paired with a final observation at the same airport. November 1 has a final high at 86 markets, so the temperature averages stop on October 31.

Next-day highs this week

Among the models, ICON had the smallest average miss, 2.1°F, across 1,255 market-days. The National Weather Service was closer still, at 1.8°F on those same 1,255 market-days. HRRR was 2.3°F on 1,231 market-days. GFS was 2.4°F on the same 1,255 market-days as ICON.

Biggest busts

A bust is the largest miss on one airport's next-day high. The forecast minus the final observation:

• GFS at North Platte on October 26 forecast 59.8°F. The high was 43°F, so the forecast was 16.8°F too warm.
• Canadian GEM at Sioux City on October 26 forecast 67°F. The high was 51°F, so the forecast was 16°F too warm.
• NAM at Zanesville on October 27 forecast 56.5°F. The high was 72°F, so the forecast was 15.5°F too cold.

Biggest wins

A win is a next-day high that was closer than the National Weather Service forecast for the same airport and the same day.

• ECMWF AIFS at North Platte on October 26 forecast 41.1°F. The high was 43°F, a miss of 1.9°F. The National Weather Service forecast was 58°F, a miss of 15°F. ECMWF AIFS was 13.1°F closer.
• HRRR at North Platte on October 26 forecast 45.6°F. The high was 43°F, a miss of 2.6°F. The National Weather Service forecast was 58°F, a miss of 15°F. HRRR was 12.4°F closer.
• NAM at North Platte on October 26 forecast 48.2°F. The high was 43°F, a miss of 5.2°F. The National Weather Service forecast was 58°F, a miss of 15°F. NAM was 9.8°F closer.

Model of the week

On this week's next-day highs, ICON was the closest model. The next-day skill score blends the high, the low, and the rain chance against the National Weather Service. That score ranks ICON first. ICON and HRRR both read 8% behind the National Weather Service. That is a different list from the longer board.

On the next-day board, HRRR still leads, with an average miss on highs of 2.6°F across 206 markets and 213 days. It is 18% behind the National Weather Service. ECMWF IFS is next on highs, at 2.9°F. NAM is at 3.0°F. ICON is not on that board. Its longest market record is 34 days, short of the 90 days a rank needs. Canadian GEM's longest market record is 34 days as well.

On the 2026 hurricane season board, WeatherNext 3 and the ECMWF ENS mean tie for the best overall rank, both at 2.5. Google DeepMind is next, at 3. WeatherNext 3's path miss is 20 miles at 24 hours (696 forecasts), 32 miles at 48 hours (575), 49 miles at 72 hours (471), and 94 miles at 120 hours (289). On that board, among sources with more than one forecast, that is the smallest path miss at each of those leads.

Upper Mississippi Valley severe storms

The Upper Mississippi Valley severe storms page is October 28. The damage map has 20 tornado, hail, and wind reports: 1 tornado, 13 hail, 1 wind gust, and 5 damage. The largest hail report is 3 inches at 2 SW Grove City, Minnesota. The tornado report is at 3 SE Danbury, Wisconsin. The remark says a weak, brief rotation on the ground, and no damage as of that report. The wind gust on file is 57 mph at 5 SW Gilman, Minnesota.

The frozen Day 1 severe-outlook grade counted 18 reports in the outlook window. All 18 fell inside the risk area: 9 in a Slight Risk and 9 in a Marginal Risk.

West and Central Texas flash flood

The West and Central Texas flash flood runs October 29–30. The damage map has 6 flood reports and 34 flash flood warnings. The report at 6 NE Devils River State, Texas notes a water rescue where a vehicle tried to cross Dolan Creek. The frozen excessive-rainfall grade counted 2 reports in the outlook window. Both fell inside a Slight Risk.

Arizona severe storms

The Arizona severe storms page is October 30. The damage map has 2 tornado, hail, and wind reports: 1 hail and 1 damage. The hail report is 0.5 inches at 5 N Tucson, Arizona. The damage report at 4 N Paradise Valley, Arizona notes a snapped power pole. The frozen Day 1 severe-outlook grade has no inside count. No stored report fell during that outlook's valid window.

Arizona and Southwest flash flood

The Arizona and Southwest flash flood runs October 30 through November 1. The damage map has 104 flood reports and 47 flash flood warnings. The frozen Day 1 excessive-rainfall grade counted 37 reports in the outlook window. All 37 fell inside the risk area: 9 in a Moderate Risk, 14 in a Slight Risk, and 14 in a Marginal Risk. On November 1, that grade counted 13 reports in the window: 9 in a Moderate Risk and 4 in a Slight Risk.

Sierra Nevada and Intermountain West snow

The Sierra Nevada and Intermountain West snow runs October 31 through November 1. The damage map has 8 snow reports. The largest is 9 inches at Mammoth Mountain Ski Su, California. The remark says 9 inches measured at Mammoth Ski - Main Lodge. Heavenly Ski Summit, Nevada, reported 7 inches. No snowfall amount from the National Weather Service or the models is stored at the scored airports, so those forecasts are not graded.

Southern and Central Plains severe storms

The Southern and Central Plains severe storms page runs November 1 through November 3. The damage map has 6 wind-gust reports. No tornado, hail, or damage report is on file. The strongest wind gust is 66 mph at 8 W Northern Meadows, New Mexico.

The latest stored Day 1 outlook was issued at 6:58 AM CST on November 2. It is an Enhanced Risk for north-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. The stored Day 2 outlook, issued at 12:55 AM CST that morning, is a Marginal Risk from far eastern Texas and central Louisiana into southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

Olana

Olana is the Central Pacific storm of October 24–27. The best track, where the storm actually went, has 12 positions and a peak wind of 40 kt. The archived b-deck calls it a tropical depression at 12:00 UTC on October 26, at 30 kt, and a remnant low at 00:00 UTC on October 27, at 25 kt. That latest fix is 13.2°N, 176.2°W, pressure 1007 mb.

The official forecast at 12 hours is 56 miles on 5 forecasts. The official wind forecast at that lead averaged 39 mph, and where the storm actually went averaged 37 mph. At 24 hours the official forecast is 65 miles on 3 forecasts. The official wind forecast averaged 40 mph, and where the storm actually went averaged 33 mph. On this storm, HWRF has the best overall rank, 3, from 3 graded path forecasts and 3 graded wind forecasts.

Vance

Vance is the Eastern Pacific storm of October 18–30. The best track, where the storm actually went, has 46 positions and a peak wind of 100 kt. The archived b-deck calls it a hurricane at 06:00 UTC on October 23, at 70 kt. The latest fix, 00:00 UTC on October 30, is a tropical disturbance at 25 kt, at 22.6°N, 107.8°W, pressure 1008 mb.

At 48 hours, the official forecast is off by 60 miles across 27 forecasts. At that same lead the official wind forecast averaged 78 mph and where the storm actually went averaged 63 mph. On this storm, WeatherNext 3 has the best overall rank, 2, from 93 graded path forecasts and 93 graded wind forecasts. At 48 hours, ECMWF AIFS has the smallest miss among models with at least two forecasts, 35 miles on 20 forecasts. The official forecast at that lead is 60 miles on 27 forecasts.