São Paulo
Collecting data for São Paulo. ECMWF IFS, ECMWF AIFS, and GFS are checked at SBGR against routine METARs. Scores start when collection starts.
São Paulo, Brazil. Checked at Guarulhos (SBGR), South America. ECMWF IFS, ECMWF AIFS, and GFS are reduced to the local-standard climate day and compared with routine METARs. The rank is the average miss on the high and the low. A lower miss is better.
Collecting data. 0 of 90 days are scored. A rank starts at that line. Recent misses can be shown before then. They are not a rank.
| Place on this list. 1 was closest to the weather that happened. A tie shares this number, and the next place skips ahead. Early read until the longer day count, then proven. | The forecast source this row scores. | Weighted temperature MAEAverage miss on the high and the low, days 1 through 5, using the same lead weights as the US board and the temperature weights renormalized. Lower is better. Rain yes or no is not part of this number. A rank starts at 90 matched days. | High MAELead-weighted average miss on the daily high, in degrees F. The observation is the highest temperature in the routine METARs on the local-standard climate day. Lower is better. | Low MAELead-weighted average miss on the daily low, in degrees F. The observation is the lowest temperature in the routine METARs on the local-standard climate day. Lower is better. | Hit rateShare of matched days where the yes-or-no rain call matched the METARs. A forecast of at least 0.01 inch is a yes. A METAR day is a yes when a report carries precipitation or at least 0.01 inch. A trace does not count. This column is not part of the rank. | Matched daysDays scored. How many climate days this number is averaged over. The technical name is matched days. | StatusEarly read means at least 90 days scored. Proven means 180 or more. Still collecting means it is too soon to rank. The technical names are provisional and established. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collecting data | ECMWF AIFS | — | — | — | — | 0 | Collecting |
| Collecting data | ECMWF IFS | — | — | — | — | 0 | Collecting |
| Collecting data | GFS | — | — | — | — | 0 | Collecting |
The rank is the average miss on the high and the low for days 1 through 5. A lower miss is better. Rain yes or no is shown and is not part of the rank. Under 90 matched days the row says collecting data and is not a rank.
Recent day-1 misses
Forecast minus the METAR day. Positive means the forecast was too warm. Rain is yes or no. This list starts as soon as a day is stored. It is not a rank.
Collecting data
No scored day yet. A miss shows up after a forecast and a full day of METARs are both stored. A day needs reports in at least 18 hours.
Credits
Contains ECMWF data. Copyright © 2026 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). ECMWF IFS and ECMWF AIFS open data are used under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence (CC BY 4.0). Forecast Scoreboard changes that data by keeping the nearest grid point and reducing it to a local-standard-time daily high, low, and precipitation total.
GFS is a U.S. government work in the public domain, from NOAA. The temperatures and present weather are routine METARs from NOAA's Aviation Weather Center, also a U.S. government work.