How the models did on Subtropical Storm Josephine

Subtropical Storm Josephine ran October 18–22, 2026. The operational best track has 15 positions, from 31.0°N, 71.4°W at 18:00 UTC on October 18 to 38.3°N, 68.9°W at 06:00 UTC on October 22. The peak wind on that track is 55 kt. The archived b-deck labels the latest fix a subtropical storm. Fixes from 18:00 UTC on October 18 through 12:00 UTC on October 21 are post-tropical, and the subtropical-storm label starts at 18:00 UTC on October 21.

The Josephine scorecard pairs each stored forecast with the best-track fix at the same valid time. Positions are not interpolated. Miles in the lists below are great-circle statute miles, the same unit as the score table. The track map and the official error chart on that page are drawn from this file. That 12-hour bar is the same miss in statute miles.

Official forecast

The official forecast has verified at 12 hours only. It was off by 15 miles, on 1 forecast. The wind miss was 5 kt. The track chart shows that same 15 miles. The official wind forecast at that lead averaged 69 mph, and where the storm actually went averaged 63 mph.

No source has an overall rank on this storm. A rank needs at least 3 graded forecasts for path and 3 for wind at 24, 48, 72, or 120 hours, and those cases have to share an issue time with the official forecast. No official forecast has verified at those leads yet.

48 hours

The longest lead with at least two paired forecasts is 48 hours. HAFS-B has the smallest miss there, 29 miles, on 2 forecasts. The wind miss was 8 kt.

The other models with at least two forecasts at 48 hours:

• HMON, 44 miles, 2 forecasts.
• HAFS-A, 45 miles, 2 forecasts.
• GEFS mean, 56 miles, 2 forecasts.
• GFS, 80 miles, 2 forecasts.
• HWRF, 83 miles, 2 forecasts.

Canadian GEM was 28 miles at 48 hours on 1 forecast. UKMET was 36 miles on 1 forecast. One forecast does not outrank a lead that has been checked more than once, which is why those two stay off the list above.

36 hours

At 36 hours HAFS-A is the closest model with at least two forecasts, 31 miles on 4 forecasts. UKMET is 32 miles on 2 forecasts. HAFS-B is 38 miles on 4 forecasts.

24 hours

At 24 hours, models with at least two forecasts:

• HAFS-A, 28 miles, 6 forecasts.
• HAFS-B, 28 miles, 6 forecasts.
• Canadian GEM, 30 miles, 3 forecasts.
• GFS, 35 miles, 6 forecasts.
• GEFS mean, 36 miles, 6 forecasts.
• UKMET, 36 miles, 3 forecasts.
• HWRF, 38 miles, 6 forecasts.
• HMON, 45 miles, 6 forecasts.

12 hours

The official forecast at 12 hours is 15 miles on 1 forecast. Models with more than one paired forecast:

• UKMET, 12 miles, 4 forecasts.
• GEFS mean, 14 miles, 8 forecasts.
• GFS, 19 miles, 8 forecasts.
• Canadian GEM, 21 miles, 4 forecasts.
• HWRF, 27 miles, 8 forecasts.
• HMON, 28 miles, 8 forecasts.
• HAFS-A, 32 miles, 8 forecasts.
• HAFS-B, 37 miles, 8 forecasts.

On a single 12-hour forecast, NAVGEM and WeatherNext 3 were 5 miles, ECMWF HRES was 18 miles, ECMWF AIFS, the ECMWF ENS mean, and AI GFS were 21 miles, and Google DeepMind was 22 miles. A one-forecast 12-hour miss does not outrank the longer leads above.

The scorecard has every verified lead, including 60 hours and beyond when a paired fix exists. Nothing in this note is filled in from another storm.